Market Pulse44Neutral

EchoStar CorporationOpportunity Rank #319(SATS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$106.40

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$106.40
Price
-$32.63
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 131%MOS: -$26.10

Fundamental Score

5/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is estimated at $-32.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.40, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.59% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.13%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is estimated at $-32.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.40, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.59% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.13%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$32.63
-130.67% downside
20% margin of safety: -$26.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.59%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-11.44%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

5/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
130.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
13
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -11.4% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
30.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 80%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 33 (32 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
26 news sentiment+0.2
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-17.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-10.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-12.2%
Price vs 21 EMA6 · -10.7%
Price vs 50 EMA7 · -12.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA36 · -1.8%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -17.9%
6M RS vs SPY35 · -5.4%
Distance from 52W High50 · -25.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is currently overvalued by approximately 125% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor investment prospects. Despite a stable and improving narrative score, the company's elevated leverage and negative ROIC spread suggest ongoing financial challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's high leverage at 30.8x net debt to free cash flow, which could impair financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market downturns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -3.81%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$773$866$2,798$5,534$6,672$1,104$982$1,139$1,321$1,337$1,525$1,506$1,520$884$1,117$824$601$410$343$56-$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EchoStar Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EchoStar CorporationTechnology

EchoStar Corporation, identified by the symbol SATS, operates globally by delivering a wide array of networking technologies and related services through its various subsidiaries. The company structures its operations into two primary divisions: Hughes and EchoStar Satellite Services (ESS). The Hughes division is dedicated to furnishing comprehensive broadband network solutions, managed services, specialized equipment, hardware, satellite communication functionalities, and complete communications systems for both government agencies and business enterprises. Furthermore, Hughes is involved in the engineering, development, construction, and provision of sophisticated telecommunication networks, which include satellite ground segment systems, gateways, and terminals. These are supplied not only for its own operations but also for integration with other satellite systems, serving mobile network operators and a range of corporate customers. In contrast, the EchoStar Satellite Services (ESS) segment leverages its portfolio of proprietary and leased in-orbit satellites, along with associated licenses, to provide essential satellite services. These capabilities are offered on both a full-time and an ad-hoc basis to a diverse clientele, including U.S. government service contractors, internet service providers, broadcast media organizations, content creators, and private sector businesses. EchoStar's extensive reach spans continents, serving customers across North, South, and Central America, as well as in Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, India, and the Middle East. The corporation was founded in 2007 and its main corporate offices are situated in Englewood, Colorado.