Market Pulse50Neutral

EchoStar CorporationOpportunity Rank #312(SATS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$107.71

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$107.71
Price
-$30.24
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 128%MOS: -$24.19

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is estimated at $-30.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.61% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.48%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is estimated at $-30.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.61% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.48%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$30.24
▼ -128.08% downside
20% margin of safety: -$24.19
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-11.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
128.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.8% trailing FCF yield
20
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -11.7% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
28.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (79th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 40 (34 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
27 news sentiment-0.4
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 124% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a strong narrative score, the company's elevated leverage and declining free cash flow growth present substantial concerns.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's high leverage at 28.6x net debt to free cash flow, which could exacerbate financial distress if operational performance does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.61%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.54%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$866$866$2,798$5,534$6,672$1,104$982$1,139$1,321$1,337$1,525$1,506$1,520$884$1,117$824$601$410$343$56-$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EchoStar Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EchoStar CorporationTechnology

EchoStar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides networking technologies and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Hughes and EchoStar Satellite Services (ESS). The Hughes segment offers broadband network technologies, managed services, equipment, hardware, satellite services, and communications solutions to government and enterprise customers. The segment also designs, provides, and installs gateway and terminal equipment to customers for other satellite systems. In addition, it designs, develops, constructs, and provides telecommunication networks comprising satellite ground segment systems and terminals to mobile system operators and enterprise customers. Further, this segment designs, provides, and installs gateway and terminal equipment to customers for other satellite systems, as well as offers satellite ground segment systems and terminals for other satellite systems, including mobile system operators. The ESS segment provides satellite services using its owned and leased in-orbit satellites and related licenses to offer satellite services on a full-time and/or occasional-use basis to the U.S. government service providers, internet service providers, broadcast news organizations, content providers, and private enterprise customers. It serves customers in North America, South and Central America, Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, India, and the Middle East. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.