Market Pulse44Neutral

SAP SEOpportunity Rank #161(SAP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$149.51

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$149.51
Price
$183.52
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 23%MOS: $146.82

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

-4 vs previous

Trend Score

12/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAP) is estimated at $183.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $149.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.22% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAP) is estimated at $183.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $149.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.22% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$183.52
▲ 22.75% upside
20% margin of safety: $146.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.22%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.42%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
22.7% discount to price
88
FCF Yield
6.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.4% vs WACC 8.0% (0.7x)
34
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
-4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (2nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 62 (58 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
46 news sentiment-0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

12/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-52.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-48.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.7%
Price vs 21 EMA4 · -11.6%
Price vs 50 EMA4 · -14.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA26 · -3.1%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -48.9%
Distance from 52W High0 · -52.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
SAP SE shows constructive fundamentals with a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.6% and a valuation near fair value, suggesting patience may be warranted. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.22%5 Year CAGR: 6.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,049$10,694$6,877$8,134$7,452$7,914$9,155$4,931$6,584$7,223$6,433$4,885$4,927$5,027$4,795$4,823$3,758$3,727$2,854$2,679$2,530

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates SAP SE's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

SAP SETechnology

SAP SE, founded in Walldorf, Germany, in 1972, is a global provider of diverse software applications, technology, and services. The company's core enterprise resource planning (ERP) platform, SAP S/4HANA, offers robust functionalities for finance, risk management, project execution, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain optimization, asset management, and research and development. For human resources, SAP delivers SuccessFactors solutions, which encompass HR and payroll, talent and employee experience management, and comprehensive people and workforce analytics. Additionally, SAP provides spend management tools designed to handle direct and indirect expenditures, travel and expense reporting, and external workforce administration. SAP further extends its portfolio with customer experience solutions and the SAP Business Technology Platform, empowering both clients and partners to develop, integrate, and automate applications. Its SAP Business Network serves as a crucial business-to-business collaboration platform, digitizing key supply chain processes and facilitating seamless communication among trading partners. The company also offers SAP Signavio for discovering, analyzing, and enhancing business process operations, alongside modular industry-specific cloud solutions. Through Taulia, SAP provides working capital management solutions, helping customers improve liquidity visibility and mitigate the effects of inflation. Completing its extensive offerings, SAP also provides a range of sustainability solutions and services.