Market Pulse59Neutral

SAP SEOpportunity Rank #181(SAP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$174.71

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$174.71
Price
$202.20
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 16%MOS: $161.76

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAP) is estimated at $202.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $174.71, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.22% long-term growth rate and an 8.08% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAP) is estimated at $202.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $174.71, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.22% long-term growth rate and an 8.08% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$202.20
▲ 15.73% upside
20% margin of safety: $161.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.22%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.42%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
15.7% discount to price
76
FCF Yield
5.6% trailing FCF yield
89
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.4% vs WACC 8.0% (0.7x)
34
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (88th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 76 (71 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
49 news sentiment+2.4
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 earnings beat+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
Macro headwinds+0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-42.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-21.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-44.3%
Price vs 21 EMA52 · +0.3%
Price vs 50 EMA31 · -4.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA19 · -4.3%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -21.4%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -42.3%
Distance from 52W High11 · -44.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
SAP SE offers a 16.7% upside based on its current valuation with a strong narrative score and constructive fundamentals supporting the buy recommendation. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows potential through solid free cash flow yield and buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.22%5 Year CAGR: 6.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,343$10,978$7,060$8,350$7,650$8,124$9,398$5,061$6,759$7,415$6,604$5,015$5,058$5,160$4,922$4,951$3,858$3,826$2,930$2,750$2,597

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates SAP SE's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

SAP SETechnology

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides applications, technology, and services worldwide. It offers SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR and payroll, talent and employee experience management, and people and workforce analytics; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand their business process operations; SAP's industry cloud solutions that provides modular solutions addressing industry-specific functions; Taulia solutions for working capital management to help enable customers mitigate the effects of inflation by providing visibility into working capital and access to liquidity; and sustainability solutions and services. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.