Market Pulse50Neutral

SAP SEOpportunity Rank #174(SAP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$190.50

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$190.50
Price
$184.35
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 3%MOS: $147.48

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAP) is estimated at $184.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $190.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAP) is estimated at $184.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $190.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$184.35
▼ -3.23% downside
20% margin of safety: $147.48
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.2% premium to price
45
FCF Yield
5.1% trailing FCF yield
78
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.6x)
32
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (4th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 81%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 75 (75 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 regulatory scrutiny-0.4
61 news sentiment+0.4

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
SAP SE shows a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.1% and maintains a net cash position, with valuation near fair value suggesting patience is warranted. However, returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, indicating cautious monitoring is needed.
Key Risk
The key risk is that SAP's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, potentially limiting value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.24%5 Year CAGR: 7.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,374$10,785$6,936$8,204$7,516$7,981$9,233$4,973$6,641$7,285$6,489$4,927$4,969$5,070$4,836$4,864$3,790$3,759$2,878$2,702$2,551

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates SAP SE's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

SAP SETechnology

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides applications, technology, and services worldwide. It offers SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR and payroll, talent and employee experience management, and people and workforce analytics; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand their business process operations; SAP's industry cloud solutions that provides modular solutions addressing industry-specific functions; Taulia solutions for working capital management to help enable customers mitigate the effects of inflation by providing visibility into working capital and access to liquidity; and sustainability solutions and services. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.