Market Pulse44Neutral

RTX CorporationOpportunity Rank #215(RTX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$181.83

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$181.83
Price
$159.07
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 13%MOS: $127.26

Fundamental Score

48/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

38/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of RTX Corporation (RTX) is estimated at $159.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $181.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.56% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of RTX Corporation (RTX) is estimated at $159.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $181.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.56% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$159.07
-12.52% downside
20% margin of safety: $127.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.56%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

48/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.5% premium to price
29
FCF Yield
5.7% trailing FCF yield
92
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
24
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (15th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 117 (112 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
95 news sentiment+2.5
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
Legal risk-0.1
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.1
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

38/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-14.3%
Price vs 21 EMA51 · +0.1%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA45 · -0.6%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -23.0%
6M RS vs SPY29 · -8.3%
Distance from 52W High71 · -14.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 50%
Thesis
RTX Corporation shares appear fully priced with a current price above the estimated fair value, and returns are trailing the cost of capital despite a strong narrative and healthy free cash flow yield. The company's fundamentals show a bearish score driven by a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.56%5 Year CAGR: 8.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,875$13,194$9,784$11,049$9,943$9,393$5,573$11,490$8,624$8,025$5,959$8,415$9,640$9,287$9,578$7,573$6,771$6,179$7,377$6,483$5,757

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates RTX Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

RTX CorporationIndustrials

RTX Corporation, a major player in the aerospace and defense sectors, provides sophisticated systems and extensive services to a diverse global clientele. This includes commercial entities, military organizations, and government agencies, both within the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three primary business units: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace segment delivers a broad range of aerospace and defense products, alongside comprehensive aftermarket support solutions. Its customer base spans manufacturers of civil and military aircraft, commercial airlines, and operators in regional, business, general aviation, defense, and commercial space ventures. This division's offerings cover the design, production, and maintenance of aircraft interior components, such as oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation and storage facilities, galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management. It also supplies battlespace management tools, test and training range infrastructure, crew escape mechanisms, simulation and training programs, and essential information management services. Its post-sales services include providing spare parts, overhaul and repair, specialized engineering and technical assistance, training and fleet management, and integrated asset and information management. Pratt & Whitney, another core segment, is a leading provider of aircraft propulsion systems for commercial airliners, military aircraft, business jets, and general aviation. This division is also responsible for manufacturing, selling, and maintaining auxiliary power units for both military and commercial applications. Finally, the Raytheon segment specializes in creating advanced capabilities for the detection, tracking, and mitigation of both defensive and offensive threats. Its tailored solutions serve the U.S. government, foreign governments, and various commercial customers. Established in 1934, the company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation before officially rebranding as RTX Corporation in July 2023. RTX Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.