Market Pulse59Neutral

RTX CorporationOpportunity Rank #233(RTX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$176.78

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$176.78
Price
$159.07
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 10%MOS: $127.26

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

26/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of RTX Corporation (RTX) is estimated at $159.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $176.78, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.56% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of RTX Corporation (RTX) is estimated at $159.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $176.78, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.56% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$159.07
-10.02% downside
20% margin of safety: $127.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.56%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.0% premium to price
33
FCF Yield
5.8% trailing FCF yield
96
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
24
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 183 (179 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
130 news sentiment+3.4
45 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 earnings beat+0.1
Guidance raise+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

26/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.2%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA31 · -3.1%
Price vs 50 EMA20 · -6.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA23 · -3.6%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -18.2%
6M RS vs SPY30 · -7.7%
Distance from 52W High66 · -17.0%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 50%
Thesis
RTX Corporation shares appear fully priced with a current price above the base-case fair value, and returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.8%. The company's narrative score is supportive but fundamentals remain bearish with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company continues to generate returns below its cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.56%5 Year CAGR: 8.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,875$13,194$9,784$11,049$9,943$9,393$5,573$11,490$8,624$8,025$5,959$8,415$9,640$9,287$9,578$7,573$6,771$6,179$7,377$6,483$5,757

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates RTX Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

RTX CorporationIndustrials

RTX Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace Systems segment offers aerospace and defense products, and aftermarket service solutions for civil and military aircraft manufacturers and commercial airlines, as well as regional, business, and general aviation, defense, and commercial space operations. This segment also designs, produces, and supports cabin interior, including oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation, storage and galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management systems; battlespace, test and training range systems, crew escape systems, and simulation and training solutions; information management services; and aftermarket services that include spare parts, overhaul and repair, engineering and technical support, training and fleet management solutions, and asset and information management services. Its Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation customers; and produces, sells, and services military and commercial auxiliary power units. The Raytheon segment provides defensive and offensive threat detection, tracking, and mitigation capabilities for U.S., foreign government, and commercial customers. The company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation and changed its name to RTX Corporation in July 2023. RTX Corporation was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.