Market Pulse46Neutral

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.(RRGB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$6.99

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.99
Price
-$7.89
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 213%MOS: -$6.31

Fundamental Score

26/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is estimated at $-7.89 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -7.35% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is estimated at $-7.89 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -7.35% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$7.89
-212.88% downside
20% margin of safety: -$6.31
Years: 10Growth Rate: -7.35%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

26/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
212.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
38.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
9.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 55%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 10 (9 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 news sentiment+0.1
Upgrade headlines-0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 252% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company faces elevated leverage and a bearish fundamental score, indicating poor financial health and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's inability to improve its return on invested capital above its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and financial stability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -7.35%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -6.41%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$50$68$33$48$74$90$42$115$177$240$263$307$231$192$154$140$106$139$174$171$174

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, is involved in the development, operation, and franchising of casual and full-service restaurant concepts. Its establishments are renowned for their signature gourmet burgers and pizzas designed for sharing. Beyond these core offerings, the menu presents a wide array of selections, including appetizers (such as wings), fresh salads, hearty soups, substantial sandwiches, seafood dishes, and various other entrees. To complete the dining experience, patrons can also choose from desserts, creamy milkshakes, and an extensive beverage list encompassing specialty alcoholic drinks (like cocktails, wine, and beer) and non-alcoholic options. As of December 26, 2021, the company managed a portfolio of roughly 531 Red Robin dining locations; 430 of these were directly managed by the corporation, while 101 were run by independent franchisees across the United States and a single province in Canada. Established in 1969, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Greenwood Village, Colorado.