Market Pulse50Neutral

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.Opportunity Rank #227(RRGB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$3.12

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$3.12
Price
-$0.86
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 128%MOS: -$0.69

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is estimated at $-0.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3.12, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -6.88% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is estimated at $-0.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3.12, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -6.88% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.86
▼ -127.56% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.69
Years: 10Growth Rate: -6.88%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.24%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
127.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
120.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.2% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
52
Net Debt / FCF
7.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
74
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 39%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 4 (4 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 news sentiment+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price trading approximately 86% above estimated fair value despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 120%. The company's elevated leverage at 7.3x net debt to free cash flow further undermines its financial stability, supporting a bearish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's high leverage which could impair financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market downturns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction indicating change in company outlook.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -6.89%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$68$68$33$48$74$90$42$115$177$240$263$307$231$192$154$140$106$139$174$171$174

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises full-service and casual-dining restaurants. The company's restaurants primarily offer burgers and shareable pizzas; various appetizers, salads, soups, sandwiches, seafood, and other entrees; and desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. As of December 26, 2021, it operated approximately 531 Red Robin restaurants, including 430 were company-owned and 101 were operated by franchisees in the United States and one Canadian province. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.