Market Pulse50Neutral

Roku, Inc.Opportunity Rank #192(ROKU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$97.81

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$97.81
Price
$84.87
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 13%MOS: $67.90

Fundamental Score

50/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

-4 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is estimated at $84.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $97.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is estimated at $84.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $97.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$84.87
▼ -13.23% downside
20% margin of safety: $67.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

50/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
13.2% premium to price
28
FCF Yield
4.2% trailing FCF yield
55
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
-4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (19th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 105 (91 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
70 news sentiment+0.8
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
5 earnings beat+0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
4 analyst upgrades+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 52%
Thesis
Roku shares appear fully priced relative to the base-case fair value with a current price above the estimated intrinsic value, and returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score and a near net cash balance sheet, the overall fundamentals suggest limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Roku's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 15.59%5 Year CAGR: 17.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
$604$489$223$338$173$268$231$98$32$47-$24-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Roku, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Roku, Inc.Communication Services

Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Player. Its platform allows users to discover and access various movies and TV episodes, as well as live TV, news sports, shows, and others. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 60.1 million active accounts. It also provides digital and video advertising, content distribution, subscription, and billing services, as well as other commerce transactions, and brand sponsorship and promotions; and manufactures, sells, and licenses smart TVs under the Roku TV name. In addition, the company offers streaming players, and audio products and accessories under the Roku brand name; and sells branded channel buttons on remote controls of streaming devices. It provides its products and services through retailers and distributors, as well as directly to customers through its website in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Peru, North and South Americas, and Europe. Roku, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.