Market Pulse53Neutral

Roku, Inc.Opportunity Rank #190(ROKU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$141.67

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$141.67
Price
$97.96
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 31%MOS: $78.37

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

82/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is estimated at $97.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $141.67, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.31% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is estimated at $97.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $141.67, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.31% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$97.96
-30.85% downside
20% margin of safety: $78.37
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.31%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.83%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
30.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.2% trailing FCF yield
29
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.8% vs WACC 8.0% (1.6x)
80
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (12th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 158 (125 News · 33 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
111 news sentiment+0.2
11 analyst downgrades-0.1
4 legal risk+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
22 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

82/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-1.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+19.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+25.1%
Price vs 21 EMA56 · +1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA77 · +6.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA84 · +5.0%
3M RS vs SPY96 · +19.2%
6M RS vs SPY94 · +25.1%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Roku shares appear fully priced with a current valuation above the estimated fair value, and returns are trailing the company's cost of capital despite constructive fundamentals and a strong balance sheet. The company's fundamentals are neutral with stable narrative trends, but the stock lacks upside potential given the negative valuation gap.
Key Risk
The key risk is that Roku's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, limiting value creation and potential share price appreciation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 15.83%5 Year CAGR: 19.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
$666$489$223$338$173$268$231$98$32$47-$24-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Roku, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Roku, Inc.Communication Services

Roku, Inc., alongside its affiliated companies, operates a significant platform for television streaming. The enterprise is segmented into two primary areas: Platform and Player. Through its platform, users can effortlessly explore and access a vast selection of content, including films, television series, live broadcasts, news updates, sports events, and other forms of entertainment. As of December 31, 2021, Roku had garnered 60.1 million active user accounts. Beyond its core streaming service, Roku generates revenue from diverse offerings such as digital and video advertisements, content distribution, and the management of subscriptions and billing. The company also facilitates various e-commerce transactions and provides opportunities for brand sponsorship and promotions. Roku further diversifies its business by manufacturing, marketing, and licensing smart televisions under the "Roku TV" brand. Additionally, it offers a line of Roku-branded hardware, which includes streaming devices, audio equipment, and related accessories. A specific revenue stream comes from selling dedicated channel buttons that are integrated into the remote controls of its streaming gadgets. Roku distributes its comprehensive range of products and services through multiple channels: traditional retail outlets, specialized distributors, and directly to consumers via its official website. Its operational footprint extends across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Peru, and broadly throughout both North and South America, as well as Europe. Roku, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.