Market Pulse44Neutral

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.Opportunity Rank #241(RKLB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$100.29

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$100.29
Price
$2.05
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 98%MOS: $1.64

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

61/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is estimated at $2.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $100.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is estimated at $2.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $100.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.05
-97.96% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.64
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-6.33%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -6.3% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
193.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-28.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (92nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 208 (199 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
169 news sentiment+2.7
6 upgrade headlines+0.6
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

61/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+75.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+34.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-10.3%
Price vs 21 EMA6 · -10.3%
Price vs 50 EMA28 · -4.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA89 · +6.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +34.4%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +75.0%
Distance from 52W High34 · -33.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price nearly 98% above its estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative score but undermined by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative, the company faces substantial financial challenges including negative ROIC and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its cost of capital, which could further deteriorate its valuation and financial health.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 47.50%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 109.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$7-$9$18-$44-$64-$46-$3$3

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Rocket Lab USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.Industrials

Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets. Key products include the highly successful Electron small orbital launch vehicle and the versatile Photon satellite platforms, both of which they design, manufacture, and market. Furthermore, the company is actively developing the larger Neutron launch vehicle, capable of carrying 8-ton payloads. Beyond manufacturing, they also conduct remote launch operations and craft specialized components and subsystems for both their Photon spacecraft family and the broader commercial spacecraft market. Their diverse clientele spans commercial enterprises, major aerospace contractors, and governmental entities.