Market Pulse50Neutral

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.Opportunity Rank #318(RKLB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$68.00

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$68.00
Price
$1.22
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 98%MOS: $0.98

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is estimated at $1.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $68.00, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and a 12.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is estimated at $1.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $68.00, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and a 12.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.22
▼ -98.21% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-8.07%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -8.1% vs WACC 8.0% (-1.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
93.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-33.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 99%Updated: 37m ago
Sources: 150 (142 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
112 news sentiment+2.1
22 regulatory scrutiny+1.5
2 downgrade headlines+0.3
3 upgrade headlines+0.2
3 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 98% above the estimated fair value, and it exhibits weak fundamentals including negative returns on invested capital. Despite a strong and improving narrative score, the company's financial performance and cash flow metrics remain concerning.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating value destruction and poor capital efficiency.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 43.82%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 106.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$9-$9$18-$44-$64-$46-$3$3

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Rocket Lab USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.Industrials

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions; and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron small orbital launch vehicles and the Photon satellite platforms, as well as developing the Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle; conducts remote launch activities; and designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for the Photon family of spacecraft and broader merchant spacecraft components. The company serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.