Market Pulse53Neutral

Rigetti Computing, Inc.Opportunity Rank #330(RGTI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$14.85

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$14.85
Price
$1.09
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 93%MOS: $0.87

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

+6 vs previous

Trend Score

7/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is estimated at $1.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.38% long-term growth rate and a 12.02% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is estimated at $1.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.38% long-term growth rate and a 12.02% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.09
▼ -92.66% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.87
Years: 10Growth Rate: -37.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-6.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
92.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -6.2% vs WACC 7.0% (-0.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
10.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-44.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
+6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 106 (103 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
90 news sentiment+0.6
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

7/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-74.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-50.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-21.1%
Price vs 21 EMA2 · -13.6%
Price vs 50 EMA1 · -21.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA5 · -8.7%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -50.6%
Distance from 52W High0 · -74.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value nearly 100% below its current price, supported by a strong narrative score but weak fundamentals. The company exhibits poor financial health with negative returns on invested capital and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -37.40%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -42.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120212020
-$41-$40-$40-$42-$40-$26-$22-$34

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Rigetti Computing, Inc.Technology

Rigetti Computing, Inc. operates as a full-stack quantum computing enterprise. This company develops and manufactures both quantum computers and the crucial superconducting quantum processors that enable their operation. Its sophisticated machines are made accessible through diverse cloud environments—public, private, or hybrid—via its specialized Quantum Cloud Services platform. The firm was established in 2013 and has its headquarters in Berkeley, California.