Market Pulse50Neutral

Rigetti Computing, Inc.Opportunity Rank #326(RGTI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$15.88

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$15.88
Price
$1.25
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 92%MOS: $1.00

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is estimated at $1.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.88, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.02% long-term growth rate and an 11.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is estimated at $1.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.88, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.02% long-term growth rate and an 11.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.25
▼ -92.13% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.00
Years: 10Growth Rate: -37.02%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-14.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
92.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -14.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
11.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-44.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 111 (103 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 downgrade headlines-0.2
Earnings miss-0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
92 news sentiment+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 91.8% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company faces elevated leverage and declining free cash flow, indicating substantial financial stress.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in financial performance and leverage could further impair value and investor returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -37.01%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -41.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120212020
-$40-$40-$40-$42-$40-$26-$22-$34

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Rigetti Computing, Inc.Technology

Rigetti Computing, Inc. operates as an integrated systems company. The company builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors that power them. Its machines are integrated into various public, private, or hybrid clouds through its Quantum Cloud Services platform. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Berkeley, California.