Market Pulse59Neutral

Rigetti Computing, Inc.Opportunity Rank #277(RGTI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$18.34

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$18.34
Price
$1.25
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 93%MOS: $1.00

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

56/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is estimated at $1.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.34, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.02% long-term growth rate and an 11.52% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is estimated at $1.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.34, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.02% long-term growth rate and an 11.52% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.25
▼ -93.18% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.00
Years: 10Growth Rate: -37.02%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-14.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
93.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -14.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
11.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-44.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (90th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 98 (93 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
80 news sentiment+2.0
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

56/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-66.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-58.1%
Price vs 21 EMA+7.9%
Price vs 21 EMA87 · +7.9%
Price vs 50 EMA84 · +8.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA55 · +0.6%
3M RS vs SPY51 · +0.1%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -58.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -66.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price nearly 93% above its estimated fair value, supported by a strong but improving narrative score. However, its fundamentals are weak, with negative returns on invested capital and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued poor financial performance, particularly its negative ROIC versus WACC spread and deteriorating free cash flow metrics.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -37.01%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -41.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120212020
-$40-$40-$40-$42-$40-$26-$22-$34

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Rigetti Computing, Inc.Technology

Rigetti Computing, Inc. operates as an integrated systems company. The company builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors that power them. Its machines are integrated into various public, private, or hybrid clouds through its Quantum Cloud Services platform. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Berkeley, California.