Market Pulse53Neutral

Reddit, Inc.Opportunity Rank #205(RDDT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$168.72

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$168.72
Price
$100.79
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 40%MOS: $80.63

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

40/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) is estimated at $100.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $168.72, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.04% long-term growth rate and an 11.96% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) is estimated at $100.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $168.72, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.04% long-term growth rate and an 11.96% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$100.79
▼ -40.26% downside
20% margin of safety: $80.63
Years: 10Growth Rate: 13.04%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
43.77%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
40.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
18
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 43.8% vs WACC 7.0% (6.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
293.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (65th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 105 (95 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
84 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.3
Earnings beat+0.3
Macro headwinds+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

40/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-7.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-37.7%
Price vs 21 EMA13 · -7.2%
Price vs 50 EMA30 · -4.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA75 · +3.3%
3M RS vs SPY73 · +6.0%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -28.6%
Distance from 52W High25 · -37.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
WATCHConfidence: 43%
Thesis
Reddit, Inc. exhibits strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a net cash balance sheet, indicating operational efficiency and financial stability. However, its current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and the significant premium to fair value pose risks to the stock's performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Watch for meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 244.76%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 299.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
$882$698$228-$65-$88-$128-$59

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Reddit, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Reddit, Inc.Communication Services

Reddit, Inc. oversees an internet-based service dedicated to fostering diverse online communities. This platform categorizes groups by shared passions, enabling its users to participate in dialogues through recounting experiences, sharing external web addresses, uploading visual and video content, and engaging in direct replies. Founded in 2005, the corporation maintains its central operations in San Francisco, California. Reddit, Inc. also functions as a controlled subsidiary of Advance Publications, Inc.