Market Pulse59Neutral

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #319(RCAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$10.36

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$10.36
Price
$0.60
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 94%MOS: $0.48

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

14/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) is estimated at $0.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.36, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.91% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) is estimated at $0.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.36, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.91% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.60
▼ -94.21% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.48
Years: 10Growth Rate: -42.91%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-19.35%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
94.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-8.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -19.3% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
31
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-58.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (4th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 45 (42 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
34 news sentiment-0.5
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

14/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-16.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-11.3%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.3%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -16.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA12 · -5.9%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -24.7%
6M RS vs SPY54 · +1.5%
Distance from 52W High19 · -40.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 94.6% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's negative ROIC spread and deteriorating free cash flow could worsen, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -42.92%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -56.98%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202420232022202120202019201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$82-$82-$18-$20-$27-$16-$1-$1$0-$1-$20$0$$00$0$0$$0$00$0$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.Technology

Red Cat Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various products, services, and solutions to the drone industry. It offers commercial and government unmanned aerial vehicle technology for reconnaissance, public safety, and inspection applications. The company also provides First Person View (FPV) video goggles; and software and hardware solutions that enable drones to complete inspection services in locations where global positioning systems are not available. In addition, it is involved in the sales of FPV drones and equipment primarily to the consumer marketplace. Red Cat Holdings, Inc.is based in San Juan, Puerto Rico.