Market Pulse44Neutral

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #310(RCAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$10.63

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$10.63
Price
$0.17
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 98%MOS: $0.14

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

28/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) is estimated at $0.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.63, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -44.07% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) is estimated at $0.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.63, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -44.07% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.17
▼ -98.40% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.14
Years: 10Growth Rate: -44.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-20.39%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-9.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -20.4% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.3x net debt to FCF
52
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-60.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (79th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 77%Updated: 34m ago
Sources: 55 (55 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
40 news sentiment+0.7

Trend Details

28/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-34.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+43.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-8.8%
Price vs 21 EMA9 · -8.8%
Price vs 50 EMA10 · -10.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA38 · -1.5%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -34.5%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +43.4%
Distance from 52W High22 · -38.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value nearly 99% below its current price, supported by a strong but deteriorating narrative score. The company's fundamentals are weak, with negative returns on invested capital far below its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could further erode shareholder value if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -44.09%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -59.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202420232022202120202019201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$105-$82-$18-$20-$27-$16-$1-$1$0-$1-$20$0$$00$0$0$$0$00$0$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.Technology

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) operates as a multifaceted provider within the drone industry, offering a comprehensive suite of products, services, and innovative solutions. The company develops and supplies unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology tailored for both commercial and government sectors, addressing critical applications such as reconnaissance, public safety, and detailed inspection. Its product portfolio also includes immersive First Person View (FPV) video goggles, alongside specialized software and hardware designed to enable drones to perform inspection tasks even in environments where global positioning systems are inaccessible. Furthermore, Red Cat Holdings actively markets and sells FPV drones and related equipment, predominantly serving the consumer marketplace. The company's operations are headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.