Market Pulse63Bullish

Roblox CorporationOpportunity Rank #96(RBLX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$55.35

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$55.35
Price
$80.48
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 45%MOS: $64.38

Fundamental Score

80/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

47/100
Weak

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is estimated at $80.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $55.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.25% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is estimated at $80.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $55.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.25% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$80.48
▲ 45.40% upside
20% margin of safety: $64.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.00%
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Fundamental Details

80/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
45.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
5.9% trailing FCF yield
96
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
29.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

47/100
Weak
-2 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (50th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 213 (195 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
152 legal risk-1.7
37 news sentiment+0.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.6
Margin pressure-0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-60.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-37.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-10.7%
Price vs 21 EMA83 · +6.6%
Price vs 50 EMA84 · +8.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.9%
3M RS vs SPY14 · -10.7%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -37.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -60.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Roblox Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 92% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.8% and robust free cash flow growth. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and stable narrative trend suggest potential for significant upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently not exceeding the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 21.52%5 Year CAGR: 25.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$2,320$2,240$1,002$792$797$760$637$184$167

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Roblox Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Roblox CorporationTechnology

Roblox Corporation oversees the development and operation of a leading digital entertainment ecosystem. Its offerings include Roblox Studio, a complimentary suite of tools empowering developers and artists to construct, launch, and manage interactive 3D environments and various other forms of content. Through the Roblox Client application, users can navigate and immerse themselves in these digital 3D realms. The platform also features Roblox Education, specifically designed for educational pursuits. Furthermore, Roblox Cloud furnishes the fundamental services and infrastructure necessary to support its unique human co-experience platform. With a vast customer base, the company caters to users across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, numerous European nations, China, the Asia-Pacific region, and other global markets. Incorporated in 2004, its primary corporate operations are based in San Mateo, California.