Market Pulse59Neutral

Roblox CorporationOpportunity Rank #216(RBLX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$44.77

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$44.77
Price
$77.70
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 74%MOS: $62.16

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

17/100
Broken

No change vs previous

Trend Score

6/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is estimated at $77.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.77, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.50% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is estimated at $77.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.77, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.50% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$77.70
▲ 73.55% upside
20% margin of safety: $62.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.00%
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Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
29.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

17/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (1st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 113 (88 News · 25 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
67 news sentiment-3.6
3 analyst downgrades-0.6
10 legal risk-0.3
3 downgrade headlines-0.3
3 earnings beat+0.2
2 analyst upgrades+0.2

Trend Details

6/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-70.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-67.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-43.7%
Price vs 21 EMA0 · -19.2%
Price vs 50 EMA0 · -27.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA3 · -9.7%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -43.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -67.9%
Distance from 52W High0 · -70.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 50%
Thesis
Roblox Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 73.6% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals including strong free cash flow growth. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential operational challenges.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative score signals weakening market sentiment which could pressure the stock despite fundamental strengths.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 21.52%5 Year CAGR: 25.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$2,320$2,240$1,002$792$797$760$637$184$167

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Roblox Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Roblox CorporationTechnology

Roblox Corporation develops and operates an online entertainment platform. The company offers Roblox Studio, a free toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences, and other content; Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore 3D digital world; Roblox Education for learning experiences; and Roblox Cloud, which provides services and infrastructure that power the human co-experience platform. It serves customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Europe, China, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.