Market Pulse50Neutral

Roblox CorporationOpportunity Rank #126(RBLX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$56.85

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$56.85
Price
$68.64
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 21%MOS: $54.91

Fundamental Score

75/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is estimated at $68.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $56.85, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is estimated at $68.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $56.85, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$68.64
▲ 20.74% upside
20% margin of safety: $54.91
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.00%
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Fundamental Details

75/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
20.7% discount to price
85
FCF Yield
5.3% trailing FCF yield
81
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
27.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 35m ago
Sources: 108 (90 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Margin pressure+0.3
73 news sentiment+0.2
4 legal risk-0.2
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 10h ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Roblox Corporation is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 20.7% above the current price and a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.3%, supported by constructive fundamentals and improving narrative trends. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and valuation discount present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is that Roblox's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, potentially limiting value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.85%5 Year CAGR: 22.75%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$2,119$2,240$1,002$792$797$760$637$184$167

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Roblox Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Roblox CorporationTechnology

Roblox Corporation develops and operates an online entertainment platform. The company offers Roblox Studio, a free toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences, and other content; Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore 3D digital world; Roblox Education for learning experiences; and Roblox Cloud, which provides services and infrastructure that power the human co-experience platform. It serves customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Europe, China, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.