Market Pulse57Neutral

QXO, Inc.Opportunity Rank #307(QXO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$14.46

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$14.46
Price
$9.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 34%MOS: $7.69

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

5/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of QXO, Inc. (QXO) is estimated at $9.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.14% long-term growth rate and a 10.78% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of QXO, Inc. (QXO) is estimated at $9.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.14% long-term growth rate and a 10.78% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$9.61
▼ -33.54% downside
20% margin of safety: $7.69
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.85%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
33.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.8% trailing FCF yield
44
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.8% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.0x net debt to FCF
99
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
192.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (4th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 82%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 37 (29 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
23 news sentiment-0.1
3 legal risk+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

5/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-44.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-50.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-15.2%
Price vs 21 EMA9 · -9.0%
Price vs 50 EMA4 · -15.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA9 · -6.8%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -44.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -50.5%
Distance from 52W High7 · -46.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 34d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
QXO, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 32.7% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that lag the cost of capital. The company's financial health is bearish, with negative ROIC relative to WACC and a weak narrative score indicating limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that QXO's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.14%5 Year CAGR: 310.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$395$340$85$1$2$0$20$$2$3$2$0$1$1$0$10$0$$00$-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates QXO, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

QXO, Inc.Industrials

QXO, Inc. is a publicly traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing and complementary building products in the United States. It plans to become tech-enabled in the building products distribution industry and generate outsized value for shareholders. The company was founded on October 3, 2002, and is headquartered in Greenwich, CT.