Market Pulse50Neutral

Restaurant Brands International Inc.Opportunity Rank #250(QSR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$75.01

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$75.01
Price
$50.55
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 33%MOS: $40.44

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is estimated at $50.55 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $75.01, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.19% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.05%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is estimated at $50.55 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $75.01, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.19% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.05%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$50.55
-32.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $40.44
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.27%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
32.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
7.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
7.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
91
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (31st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 63 (49 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+0.5
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
Promotions/discounting+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Restaurant Brands International Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 27.5% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential. Elevated leverage further pressures the company's financial stability, supporting a cautious stance.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained inability to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and financial health.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.19%5 Year CAGR: 1.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$1,930$1,979$1,704$1,443$1,590$1,832$1,038$1,538$1,251$1,419$1,303$1,320$290$351$295

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Restaurant Brands International Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as quick service restaurant company in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tim Hortons (TH), Burger King (BK), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLK), and Firehouse Subs (FHS). The company owns and franchises TH chain of donut/coffee/tea restaurants that offer blend coffee, tea, and espresso-based hot and cold specialty drinks; and fresh baked goods, including donuts, Timbits, bagels, muffins, cookies and pastries, grilled paninis, classic sandwiches, wraps, soups, and others. It is also involved in owning and franchising BK, a fast food hamburger restaurant chain, which offers flame-grilled hamburgers, chicken and other specialty sandwiches, french fries, soft drinks, and other food items; and PLK quick service restaurants that provide Louisiana style fried chicken, chicken tenders, fried shrimp and other seafood, red beans and rice, and other regional items. In addition, the company owns and franchises FHS restaurants quick service restaurants that offer subs, soft drinks, and local specialties. As of February 15, 2022, the company had approximately 29,000 restaurants in 100 countries under the Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, And Firehouse Subs brands. Restaurant Brands International Inc. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.