Market Pulse53Neutral

Restaurant Brands International Inc.Opportunity Rank #257(QSR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$72.38

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$72.38
Price
$59.09
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 18%MOS: $47.27

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

39/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is estimated at $59.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $72.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.29% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is estimated at $59.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $72.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.29% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$59.09
-18.36% downside
20% margin of safety: $47.27
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.29%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.4% premium to price
19
FCF Yield
8.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
6.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
14.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
97
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (51st pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 80%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 33 (21 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
14 news sentiment+0.1
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

39/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-15.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-11.3%
Price vs 21 EMA-2.0%
Price vs 21 EMA38 · -2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA38 · -2.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA46 · -0.5%
3M RS vs SPY7 · -15.1%
6M RS vs SPY46 · -1.5%
Distance from 52W High77 · -11.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Restaurant Brands International Inc. shares appear fully priced with a current price above the estimated fair value, and returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.0%, elevated leverage at 6.1x net debt to FCF and a deteriorating narrative score suggest caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains significantly below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.29%5 Year CAGR: 2.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$2,033$1,979$1,704$1,443$1,590$1,832$1,038$1,538$1,251$1,419$1,303$1,320$290$351$295

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Restaurant Brands International Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (RBI), a prominent quick-service restaurant enterprise, maintains its headquarters in Toronto, Canada. Established in 1954, the company operates globally, managing and franchising four distinct and widely recognized brands: Tim Hortons (TH), Burger King (BK), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLK), and Firehouse Subs (FHS). Through its Tim Hortons segment, RBI offers a diverse menu at its coffee, tea, and donut establishments. This includes a selection of hot and cold specialty beverages like espresso-based drinks, a variety of freshly baked goods such as donuts, Timbits, bagels, muffins, cookies, and pastries, alongside savory options like grilled paninis, classic sandwiches, wraps, and soups. Burger King, a renowned fast-food hamburger chain within RBI's portfolio, provides patrons with its signature flame-grilled hamburgers, an array of chicken and other specialized sandwiches, French fries, and various soft drinks. The company's Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen outlets are celebrated for their distinctive Louisiana-style fried chicken, chicken tenders, and fried shrimp and other seafood options, complemented by regional specialties like red beans and rice. Furthermore, RBI's Firehouse Subs restaurants serve a range of submarine sandwiches, beverages, and local culinary delights. Demonstrating significant international reach, RBI had approximately 29,000 restaurants spread across 100 countries under its four brands as of February 15, 2022.