Market Pulse59Neutral

QuantumScape CorporationOpportunity Rank #301(QS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$7.35

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$7.35
Price
$1.28
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 83%MOS: $1.02

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

38/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of QuantumScape Corporation (QS) is estimated at $1.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.35, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -59.90% long-term growth rate and a 12.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of QuantumScape Corporation (QS) is estimated at $1.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.35, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -59.90% long-term growth rate and a 12.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.28
▼ -82.59% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: -59.90%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-39.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-4.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -39.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-5.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
4.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-64.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (80th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 47 (44 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+0.9
2 earnings beat+0.2
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

38/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-59.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-64.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-17.8%
Price vs 21 EMA78 · +5.2%
Price vs 50 EMA65 · +3.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA34 · -2.0%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -17.8%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -64.7%
Distance from 52W High0 · -59.1%

Investment Coach

Updated 22h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
QuantumScape Corporation is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 82% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and financial health.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC and persistent negative free cash flow could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -59.90%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -65.38%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
-$201-$206-$212-$156-$59-$1-$37-$32-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates QuantumScape Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

QuantumScape CorporationConsumer Cyclical

QuantumScape Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the development and commercialization of solid-state lithium-metal batteries for electric vehicles and other applications in the United States. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.