Market Pulse50Neutral

QuantumScape CorporationOpportunity Rank #333(QS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$7.05

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$7.05
Price
$1.42
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 80%MOS: $1.14

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of QuantumScape Corporation (QS) is estimated at $1.42 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -60.00% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of QuantumScape Corporation (QS) is estimated at $1.42 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -60.00% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.42
▼ -79.86% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.14
Years: 10Growth Rate: -60.00%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-38.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
79.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-4.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -38.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-5.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
4.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-64.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (95th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 34m ago
Sources: 49 (46 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
QuantumScape Corporation is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 79.6% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited upside potential.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in financial performance or failure to improve returns on invested capital could further depress the stock price.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -60.00%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -65.56%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
-$206-$206-$212-$156-$59-$1-$37-$32-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates QuantumScape Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

QuantumScape CorporationConsumer Cyclical

QuantumScape Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the development and commercialization of solid-state lithium-metal batteries for electric vehicles and other applications in the United States. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.