Market Pulse50Neutral

D-Wave Quantum Inc.Opportunity Rank #323(QBTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$16.31

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$16.31
Price
$2.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 86%MOS: $1.85

Fundamental Score

16/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is estimated at $2.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $16.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.70% long-term growth rate and an 11.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is estimated at $2.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $16.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.70% long-term growth rate and an 11.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.31
▼ -85.84% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.85
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.70%
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Fundamental Details

16/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
85.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
12.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-52.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (7th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 122 (112 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
101 news sentiment+1.3
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
D-Wave Quantum Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price 85.7% above its estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits elevated leverage and deteriorating financial trends, making it a high-risk investment at present.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could further impair value and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price movement to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.70%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -51.25%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
-$68-$68-$41-$60-$45-$33-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates D-Wave Quantum Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

D-Wave Quantum Inc.Technology

D-Wave Quantum Inc. develops and delivers quantum computing systems, software, and services worldwide. The company offers Advantage, a fifth-generation quantum computer; Launch, a quantum computing onboarding service; Ocean a full suite of open-source programming tools; and Leap, a cloud-based service that provides real-time access to a live quantum computer, as well as access to Advantage, hybrid solvers, the Ocean software development kit, live code, demos, learning resources, and a vibrant developer community. It also provides D-Wave Launch, a quantum professional service that guides enterprises from problem discovery through in-production application deployment. The company's quantum solutions are used in artificial intelligence, materials sciences, drug discovery, scheduling, cybersecurity, fault detection, and financial modeling. It serves manufacturing and logistics, financial services, life sciences, and other industries. D-Wave Quantum Inc. is based in Burnaby, Canada.