Market Pulse57Neutral

D-Wave Quantum Inc.Opportunity Rank #312(QBTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$18.95

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$18.95
Price
$1.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 93%MOS: $1.05

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is estimated at $1.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -50.98% long-term growth rate and a 12.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is estimated at $1.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -50.98% long-term growth rate and a 12.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.31
▼ -93.09% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: -50.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-418.1%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
93.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -418.1% vs WACC 7.0% (-59.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
5.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-56.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 140 (129 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
110 news sentiment+0.5
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-57.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-14.3%
Price vs 21 EMA2 · -14.3%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -15.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA36 · -1.7%
3M RS vs SPY96 · +19.8%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -40.9%
Distance from 52W High0 · -57.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 34d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
D-Wave Quantum Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price nearly 94% above its estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative score, the company's financial health and cash flow metrics remain weak.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's severely negative return on invested capital compared to its weighted average cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -50.98%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -56.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
-$93-$68-$41-$60-$45-$33-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates D-Wave Quantum Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

D-Wave Quantum Inc.Technology

Operating globally, D-Wave Quantum Inc. specializes in developing and supplying quantum computing systems, software, and related services. Their offerings include Advantage, a pioneering fifth-generation quantum computer, and Launch, an onboarding service designed for quantum computing adoption. The company also provides Ocean, a comprehensive suite of open-source programming tools. Furthermore, Leap is a cloud-based service that enables real-time interaction with a live quantum computer. This service further provides access to Advantage, along with hybrid problem-solving tools, the Ocean Software Development Kit, live code samples, demonstrations, learning resources, and a vibrant developer community. Additionally, D-Wave provides a dedicated "D-Wave Launch" professional service, guiding enterprises from initial problem identification through to production deployment of quantum applications. Their quantum solutions are leveraged across various domains such as artificial intelligence, materials sciences, drug discovery, scheduling, cybersecurity, fault detection, and financial modeling. They serve industries including manufacturing, logistics, financial services, and life sciences, among others. D-Wave Quantum Inc. is headquartered in Burnaby, Canada.