Market Pulse44Neutral

Papa John's International, Inc.Opportunity Rank #184(PZZA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$32.86

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$32.86
Price
$44.41
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 35%MOS: $35.53

Fundamental Score

51/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

38/100
Broken

No change vs previous

Trend Score

24/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) is estimated at $44.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $32.86, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.53% long-term growth rate and a 10.08% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) is estimated at $44.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $32.86, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.53% long-term growth rate and a 10.08% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$44.41
▲ 35.15% upside
20% margin of safety: $35.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.53%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

51/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
35.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.1% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
51
Net Debt / FCF
4.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

38/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (3rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 72%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 27 (20 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 downgrade headlines-0.7
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.4
Analyst downgrades-0.2
14 news sentiment+0.1
Legal risk-0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

24/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-40.6%
Price vs 21 EMA30 · -3.3%
Price vs 50 EMA32 · -3.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA46 · -0.5%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.9%
6M RS vs SPY10 · -20.2%
Distance from 52W High19 · -40.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Papa John's International, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 42% above its current price and a healthy free cash flow yield of 16%. Despite a neutral fundamental score, the company presents a compelling buy opportunity given its strong discounted cash flow metrics.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital is slightly below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.53%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$168$191$179$270$196$253$222$99$115$188$200$199$171$152$147$130$120$134$102$93$125

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Papa John's International, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Papa John's International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza chain that manages and grants franchises for its Papa John's branded delivery and take-out restaurants across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into four primary segments: company-owned restaurants within the U.S., commissary services for North America, North American franchising, and its international ventures. Beyond its core model, Papa John's also runs dine-in and delivery establishments in various international markets. By December 26, 2021, the Papa John's network spanned 5,650 locations across 50 different countries and territories, comprising 600 directly owned by the company and 5,050 operating as franchises. Established in 1984, the company's corporate headquarters are located in Louisville, Kentucky.