Market Pulse50Neutral

Papa John's International, Inc.Opportunity Rank #135(PZZA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$34.03

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$34.03
Price
$45.55
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 34%MOS: $36.44

Fundamental Score

56/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) is estimated at $45.55 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $34.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.64% long-term growth rate and a 10.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) is estimated at $45.55 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $34.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.64% long-term growth rate and a 10.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$45.55
▲ 33.85% upside
20% margin of safety: $36.44
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.64%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.34%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

56/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
33.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.3% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
52
Net Debt / FCF
4.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (52nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 84%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 39 (35 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
29 news sentiment+0.5
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
Downgrade headlines-0.1
Promotions/discounting-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Papa John's International, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 37.8% above the current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield of 17.1% and constructive fundamentals. The company shows a slight positive spread of ROIC over WACC, indicating modest value creation.
Key Risk
A key risk is the company's weak narrative score and negative free cash flow CAGR, which may signal challenges in sustaining growth and investor sentiment.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.64%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.98%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$191$191$179$270$196$253$222$99$115$188$200$199$171$152$147$130$120$134$102$93$125

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Papa John's International, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Papa John's International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa John's trademark in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Commissaries, North America Franchising, and International Operations. The company also operates dine-in and delivery restaurants under the Papa John's trademark internationally. As of December 26, 2021, it operated 5,650 Papa John's restaurants, which included 600 company-owned and 5,050 franchised restaurants in 50 countries and territories. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.