Market Pulse50Neutral

PayPal Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #75(PYPL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$45.49

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$45.49
Price
$141.95
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 212%MOS: $113.56

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is estimated at $141.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $45.49, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.06% long-term growth rate and a 9.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is estimated at $141.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $45.49, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.06% long-term growth rate and a 9.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$141.95
▲ 212.05% upside
20% margin of safety: $113.56
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.06%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.8%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
212.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
31
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
-1 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 219 (200 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
43 news sentiment+1.9
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
143 legal risk-0.3
Earnings miss-0.1
4 analyst downgrades-0.0
Margin pressure+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 64%
Thesis
PayPal Holdings, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 229.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and buyback activities indicate constructive financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is PayPal's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.06%5 Year CAGR: 1.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,268$7,268$8,133$5,466$6,519$6,705$6,720$4,775$6,303$3,198$3,827$3,268$2,712$2,384$2,076

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

PayPal Holdings, Inc.Financial Services

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company's payments platform allows consumers to send and receive payments in approximately 200 markets and in approximately 100 currencies, withdraw funds to their bank accounts in 56 currencies, and hold balances in their PayPal accounts in 25 currencies. PayPal Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.