Market Pulse44Neutral

PayPal Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #124(PYPL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$42.34

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$42.34
Price
$151.48
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 258%MOS: $121.18

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

18/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is estimated at $151.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $42.34, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.06% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is estimated at $151.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $42.34, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.06% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$151.48
▲ 257.77% upside
20% margin of safety: $121.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.06%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.61%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
257.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
30
Net Debt / FCF
0.0x net debt to FCF
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (40th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 153 (141 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
106 news sentiment+1.0
2 macro headwinds-0.2
9 restructuring-0.0
3 upgrade headlines+0.0
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

18/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-45.9%
Price vs 21 EMA40 · -1.6%
Price vs 50 EMA26 · -5.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA23 · -3.6%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -18.6%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -40.5%
Distance from 52W High8 · -45.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
PayPal Holdings, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 293.7% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 20.2%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and active buybacks present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.06%5 Year CAGR: 1.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,269$7,268$8,133$5,466$6,519$6,705$6,720$4,775$6,303$3,198$3,827$3,268$2,712$2,384$2,076

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

PayPal Holdings, Inc.Financial Services

PayPal Holdings, Inc. provides a worldwide technological framework that facilitates digital financial transactions for both businesses and individual users. The company offers a wide array of payment services through well-known brands such as PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy. Through its extensive platform, consumers are able to send and receive funds across roughly 200 global markets and in approximately 100 different currencies. Additionally, users can transfer money to their bank accounts in 56 currencies and maintain account balances in 25 distinct currencies within their PayPal accounts. Founded in 1998, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.