Market Pulse59Neutral

Peloton Interactive, Inc.Opportunity Rank #215(PTON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$5.66

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.66
Price
$30.94
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 447%MOS: $24.75

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

71/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is estimated at $30.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.66, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.79% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.57%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is estimated at $30.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.66, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.79% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.57%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$30.94
▲ 446.64% upside
20% margin of safety: $24.75
Years: 10Growth Rate: 15.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
68.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
446.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 68.3% vs WACC 7.0% (9.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 53 (52 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
48 news sentiment+2.1
Earnings miss-0.5
Earnings beat+0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

71/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+15.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+16.1%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.4%
Price vs 50 EMA95 · +15.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA81 · +4.4%
3M RS vs SPY94 · +16.1%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -29.1%
Distance from 52W High26 · -36.8%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Peloton Interactive, Inc. is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite strong fundamentals including a high ROIC well above its cost of capital and a healthy free cash flow yield. The company's improving narrative score supports a cautiously optimistic outlook, warranting a watch status to monitor valuation and operational performance.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the substantial overvaluation relative to fair value, which could lead to significant downside if fundamentals or market sentiment deteriorate.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Follow the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 111.92%5 Year CAGR: 102.53%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$426$342-$46-$305-$1,683$13$533-$26$78-$8

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Peloton Interactive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes under the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, and Peloton Tread+ names. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for various household users, and access to various live and on-demand classes, as well as Peloton Digital app for connected fitness subscribers to provide access to its classes. As of June 30, 2021, it had approximately 5.9 million members. The company markets and sells its interactive fitness products directly through its retail showrooms and at onepeloton.com. Peloton Interactive, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.