Market Pulse50Neutral

Peloton Interactive, Inc.Opportunity Rank #210(PTON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$3.93

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$3.93
Price
$26.08
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 564%MOS: $20.86

Fundamental Score

71/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is estimated at $26.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.81% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.11%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is estimated at $26.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.81% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.11%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$26.08
▲ 563.61% upside
20% margin of safety: $20.86
Years: 10Growth Rate: 15.81%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
51.33%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

71/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
563.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
23.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 51.3% vs WACC 7.0% (7.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
28
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-3.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 68 (62 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
56 news sentiment+0.8
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
2 earnings miss-0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Peloton Interactive, Inc. exhibits a strong return on invested capital significantly exceeding its cost of capital and maintains a healthy free cash flow yield, indicating solid operational efficiency despite a negative estimated fair value. The company's stable narrative score and active buybacks suggest potential value if the market price adjusts closer to intrinsic value.
Key Risk
The estimated fair value is substantially below the current price, indicating potential overvaluation risk or market skepticism about future growth.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 99.53%5 Year CAGR: 96.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$370$342-$46-$305-$1,683$13$533-$26$78-$8

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Peloton Interactive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes under the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, and Peloton Tread+ names. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for various household users, and access to various live and on-demand classes, as well as Peloton Digital app for connected fitness subscribers to provide access to its classes. As of June 30, 2021, it had approximately 5.9 million members. The company markets and sells its interactive fitness products directly through its retail showrooms and at onepeloton.com. Peloton Interactive, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.