Market Pulse44Neutral

Peloton Interactive, Inc.Opportunity Rank #18(PTON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$6.12

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.12
Price
$22.80
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 273%MOS: $18.24

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

66/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is estimated at $22.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.79% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) is estimated at $22.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.79% long-term growth rate and a 12.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$22.80
▲ 272.55% upside
20% margin of safety: $18.24
Years: 10Growth Rate: 15.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
68.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
272.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
16.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 68.3% vs WACC 7.0% (9.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (41st pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 66%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 21 (19 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
17 news sentiment+0.3
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

66/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.3%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.1%
Price vs 50 EMA80 · +7.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.0%
3M RS vs SPY93 · +15.7%
6M RS vs SPY17 · -14.5%
Distance from 52W High36 · -32.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
WATCHConfidence: 43%
Thesis
Peloton Interactive, Inc. shows a strong return on invested capital significantly above its cost of capital and maintains a healthy free cash flow yield with a near net cash balance sheet. However, its current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting overvaluation risks.
Key Risk
The stock price is currently about 90% above the estimated fair value, posing a significant downside risk if valuation does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor narrative trends for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 111.92%5 Year CAGR: 102.53%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$426$342-$46-$305-$1,683$13$533-$26$78-$8

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Peloton Interactive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Peloton Interactive, Inc. operates globally, providing interactive fitness equipment and services. The company's main offerings include internet-connected exercise machines like the Peloton Bike, Bike+, Tread, and Tread+, which feature integrated touchscreens for streaming live and on-demand workout classes. Additionally, Peloton offers subscription packages for households, granting access to a wide array of live and archived fitness content, also available through its Peloton Digital application. As of June 30, 2021, Peloton served approximately 5.9 million members. Its innovative fitness products are sold directly to consumers via its retail showrooms and through its website, onepeloton.com. Founded in 2012, Peloton Interactive, Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.