Market Pulse50Neutral

Philip Morris International Inc.Opportunity Rank #215(PM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$163.24

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$163.24
Price
$124.93
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 23%MOS: $99.94

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is estimated at $124.93 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $163.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.11% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.01%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is estimated at $124.93 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $163.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.11% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.01%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$124.93
▼ -23.47% downside
20% margin of safety: $99.94
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.11%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.02%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.5% premium to price
11
FCF Yield
5.4% trailing FCF yield
86
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.0% vs WACC 7.0% (1.3x)
64
Net Debt / FCF
3.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
54
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (65th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 108 (105 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
52 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
50 news sentiment+0.9
Downgrade headlines+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Philip Morris International currently trades at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite a strong narrative score and a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.4%. The company's return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital by 2 percentage points, indicating efficient capital use and potential for value creation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the stock's high valuation relative to its fair value, which may lead to downside if growth or profitability metrics weaken.
Signals To Watch
  • Price movement to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained ROIC above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score trend.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.11%5 Year CAGR: 1.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,802$13,802$13,661$10,525$11,880$12,715$10,414$10,942$10,914$10,460$9,249$8,825$8,892$11,335$10,477$11,426$10,150$8,599$9,034$6,661$7,122

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Philip Morris International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Philip Morris International Inc.Consumer Defensive

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company working to delivers a smoke-free future and evolving portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products that are sold in markets outside the United States. The company offers its smoke-free products under the HEETS, HEETS Creations, HEETS Dimensions, HEETS Marlboro, HEETS FROM MARLBORO, Marlboro Dimensions, Marlboro HeatSticks, Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA brands, as well as the KT&G-licensed brands, Fiit, and Miix. It also sells its products under the Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris brands. In addition, the company owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia; and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. The company sells its smoke-free products in 71 markets. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in New York, New York.