Market Pulse59Neutral

Philip Morris International Inc.Opportunity Rank #236(PM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$171.11

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$171.11
Price
$121.71
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 29%MOS: $97.37

Fundamental Score

42/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is estimated at $121.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $171.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.10% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is estimated at $121.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $171.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.10% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$121.71
▼ -28.87% downside
20% margin of safety: $97.37
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

42/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
28.9% premium to price
2
FCF Yield
5.1% trailing FCF yield
78
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.2% vs WACC 7.0% (1.3x)
66
Net Debt / FCF
3.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
53
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (35th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 87 (80 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 news sentiment+1.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.5
25 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.9%
Price vs 21 EMA+3.1%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.1%
Price vs 50 EMA64 · +2.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA47 · -0.3%
3M RS vs SPY10 · -13.3%
6M RS vs SPY67 · +6.4%
Distance from 52W High80 · -9.9%

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 53%
Thesis
Philip Morris International Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 29% relative to its estimated fair value of $121.71, with weak fundamentals reflected in a bearish score of 42 despite a supportive narrative score of 72. The company maintains a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.21% that exceeds its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7% by 2.2 points, indicating some operational efficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price does not correct downward to reflect its fair value, potentially leading to sustained overvaluation losses.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.10%5 Year CAGR: 1.51%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,702$13,802$13,661$10,525$11,880$12,715$10,414$10,942$10,914$10,460$9,249$8,825$8,892$11,335$10,477$11,426$10,150$8,599$9,034$6,661$7,122

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Philip Morris International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Philip Morris International Inc.Consumer Defensive

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company working to delivers a smoke-free future and evolving portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products that are sold in markets outside the United States. The company offers its smoke-free products under the HEETS, HEETS Creations, HEETS Dimensions, HEETS Marlboro, HEETS FROM MARLBORO, Marlboro Dimensions, Marlboro HeatSticks, Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA brands, as well as the KT&G-licensed brands, Fiit, and Miix. It also sells its products under the Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris brands. In addition, the company owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia; and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. The company sells its smoke-free products in 71 markets. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in New York, New York.