Market Pulse59Neutral

Palantir Technologies Inc.Opportunity Rank #244(PLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$137.05

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$137.05
Price
$23.16
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 83%MOS: $18.53

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

27/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is estimated at $23.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $137.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.30% long-term growth rate and a 10.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is estimated at $23.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $137.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.30% long-term growth rate and a 10.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$23.16
-83.10% downside
20% margin of safety: $18.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
233.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
83.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 233.1% vs WACC 7.0% (33.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
397.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 218 (200 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
172 news sentiment+10.0
17 regulatory scrutiny+1.5
4 upgrade headlines+1.2
4 analyst upgrades+0.3
Analyst downgrades-0.2
Downgrade headlines-0.1

Trend Details

27/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-4.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-5.4%
Price vs 21 EMA36 · -2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA27 · -4.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA30 · -2.6%
3M RS vs SPY29 · -5.4%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -35.5%
Distance from 52W High33 · -33.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Palantir Technologies Inc. exhibits strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a supportive narrative score, indicating robust operational performance. However, its current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited upside at present.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the significant overvaluation relative to fair value, which could lead to price corrections if operational performance or market sentiment deteriorates.
Signals To Watch
  • Price movement toward at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained ROIC above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 37.28%5 Year CAGR: 51.44%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$2,759$2,168$1,166$727$264$346-$284-$152-$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Palantir Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Palantir Technologies Inc.Technology

Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company provides Palantir Gotham, a software platform which enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. It also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) that provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLM) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.