Market Pulse44Neutral

Palantir Technologies Inc.Opportunity Rank #257(PLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$119.50

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$119.50
Price
$23.21
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 81%MOS: $18.57

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

9/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is estimated at $23.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $119.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.30% long-term growth rate and a 10.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is estimated at $23.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $119.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.30% long-term growth rate and a 10.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$23.21
-80.58% downside
20% margin of safety: $18.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
269.65%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
80.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 269.7% vs WACC 7.0% (38.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
397.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 215 (200 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
177 news sentiment+2.8
17 regulatory scrutiny+1.2
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
4 upgrade headlines+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Layoffs-0.0

Trend Details

9/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-43.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-13.7%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.0%
Price vs 50 EMA5 · -13.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA26 · -3.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -35.5%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -43.5%
Distance from 52W High15 · -42.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Palantir Technologies Inc. exhibits strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and constructive free cash flow growth, supported by a stable narrative score. However, its current market price is substantially overvalued compared to the estimated fair value, suggesting caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the significant overvaluation of the stock price relative to its estimated fair value, which may lead to downside risk if market sentiment shifts.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend or confidence.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 37.28%5 Year CAGR: 51.44%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$2,759$2,168$1,166$727$264$346-$284-$152-$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Palantir Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Palantir Technologies Inc.Technology

Palantir Technologies Inc. engineers and deploys advanced software platforms primarily for the intelligence community, supporting counterterrorism investigations and operations across the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. One such product is Palantir Gotham, a sophisticated software system that enables users to uncover hidden patterns within diverse datasets, from signals intelligence to confidential informant reports. Gotham also facilitates the seamless handover between analysts and operational personnel, helping operators strategize and execute real-world responses to threats pinpointed within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that revolutionizes organizational operations by providing a central data operating system, allowing individual users to integrate and analyze their essential data in one cohesive environment. Additionally, Palantir provides Apollo, a software solution for delivering applications and updates across an enterprise, enabling clients to deploy their software in virtually any setting. Its Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) offers unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs). AIP excels at transforming both structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects, converting an organization's actions and processes into practical tools for human operators and LLM-driven agents alike. Founded in 2003, Palantir Technologies Inc. maintains its headquarters in Denver, Colorado.