Market Pulse50Neutral

Palantir Technologies Inc.Opportunity Rank #195(PLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$160.84

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$160.84
Price
$17.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 89%MOS: $13.60

Fundamental Score

58/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is estimated at $17.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $160.84, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.19% long-term growth rate and an 11.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is estimated at $17.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $160.84, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.19% long-term growth rate and an 11.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$17.00
-89.43% downside
20% margin of safety: $13.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
199.39%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

58/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
89.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 199.4% vs WACC 7.0% (28.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
376.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (39th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 56m ago
Sources: 209 (200 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
167 news sentiment+7.8
32 regulatory scrutiny+5.0
Layoffs+0.1
3 analyst upgrades+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Palantir Technologies Inc. is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite demonstrating strong fundamentals, including a high ROIC well above its cost of capital and a supportive narrative score. The company's free cash flow growth and stable narrative trend suggest potential value if the market price adjusts closer to intrinsic value.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price remains significantly overvalued relative to its fair value, limiting upside potential and increasing downside risk.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 35.90%5 Year CAGR: 44.32%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$2,169$2,168$1,166$727$264$346-$284-$152-$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Palantir Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Palantir Technologies Inc.Technology

Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company provides Palantir Gotham, a software platform which enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. It also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) that provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLM) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq