Market Pulse63Bullish

Prologis, Inc.Opportunity Rank #279(PLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$140.87

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$140.87
Price
$75.93
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 46%MOS: $60.74

Fundamental Score

23/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

47/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is estimated at $75.93 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $140.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.59% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is estimated at $75.93 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $140.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.59% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$75.93
▼ -46.10% downside
20% margin of safety: $60.74
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.37%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

23/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
46.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.0% trailing FCF yield
51
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
6.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (14th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 66 (52 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
43 news sentiment+0.9
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

47/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-5.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+1.5%
Price vs 21 EMA47 · -0.4%
Price vs 50 EMA48 · -0.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA50 · -0.0%
3M RS vs SPY18 · -9.0%
6M RS vs SPY54 · +1.5%
Distance from 52W High89 · -5.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Prologis, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 46% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Elevated leverage and a bearish fundamental score further undermine its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's elevated net debt relative to free cash flow could exacerbate financial strain if operational performance does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.77%5 Year CAGR: 8.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,286$5,008$4,912$5,373$4,677$3,495$4,185$2,586$2,719$1,798$1,519$1,047$783$568$544$1,289$526$645$1,517$1,598$1,822

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Prologis, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Prologis, Inc.Real Estate

Prologis, Inc. is the undisputed global leader in logistics real estate, strategically focusing its operations on high-barrier, high-growth markets. As of December 31, 2020, the company's extensive portfolio spanned approximately 984 million square feet (91 million square meters) of both existing properties and planned development projects, located across 19 countries. This significant footprint is managed through a blend of wholly-owned assets and co-investment ventures. Prologis leases its contemporary logistics facilities to a diverse client base of roughly 5,500 customers, primarily serving business-to-business (B2B) and retail/online fulfillment needs.