Market Pulse50Neutral

Prologis, Inc.Opportunity Rank #292(PLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$130.31

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$130.31
Price
$68.70
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 47%MOS: $54.96

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

77/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is estimated at $68.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $130.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.73% long-term growth rate and an 8.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is estimated at $68.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $130.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.73% long-term growth rate and an 8.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$68.70
▼ -47.28% downside
20% margin of safety: $54.96
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.73%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.25%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.1% trailing FCF yield
53
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
6.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Pressure from: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

77/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 102 (90 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 regulatory scrutiny+1.6
56 news sentiment+1.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 analyst downgrades-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Prologis, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 45% relative to its estimated fair value, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive narrative score. The company's improving narrative suggests potential for future positive developments, but current financial metrics remain concerning.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Prologis continues to generate returns below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.73%5 Year CAGR: 7.46%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,008$5,008$4,912$5,373$4,677$3,495$4,185$2,586$2,719$1,798$1,519$1,047$783$568$544$1,289$526$645$1,517$1,598$1,822

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Prologis, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Prologis, Inc.Real Estate

Prologis, Inc. is the global leader in logistics real estate with a focus on high-barrier, high-growth markets. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned or had investments in, on a wholly owned basis or through co-investment ventures, properties and development projects expected to total approximately 984 million square feet (91 million square meters) in 19 countries. Prologis leases modern logistics facilities to a diverse base of approximately 5,500 customers principally across two major categories: business-to-business and retail/online fulfillment.