The Progressive CorporationOpportunity Rank #25(PGR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$205.10
Last updated: Mar 24, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
The intrinsic value of The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is estimated at $764.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $205.10, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.58% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is estimated at $764.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $205.10, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.58% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Investment Coach
- Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
- Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
- Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates The Progressive Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
The Progressive CorporationFinancial Services
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.