Market Pulse50Neutral

Pfizer Inc.Opportunity Rank #224(PFE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$26.78

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$26.78
Price
$25.99
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 3%MOS: $20.79

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is estimated at $25.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $26.78, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.65%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is estimated at $25.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $26.78, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.65%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$25.99
-2.95% downside
20% margin of safety: $20.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
2.9% premium to price
45
FCF Yield
9.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
3.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 44m ago
Sources: 203 (199 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
154 news sentiment+3.1
40 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
Legal risk+0.3
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Pfizer Inc. currently exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 9.4% and a supportive narrative score. The stock is fairly valued with minimal upside potential, making it unattractive for investment at this time.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could continue to erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.24%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -10.39%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,334$14,334$15,653$12,607$32,503$35,291$17,194$15,182$18,023$18,687$17,900$16,008$18,466$19,230$18,381$21,900$12,967$17,792$19,939$15,233$19,644

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Pfizer Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Pfizer Inc.Healthcare

Pfizer Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular metabolic and women's health under the Premarin family and Eliquis brands; biologics, small molecules, immunotherapies, and biosimilars under the Ibrance, Xtandi, Sutent, Inlyta, Retacrit, Lorbrena, and Braftovi brands; and sterile injectable and anti-infective medicines, and oral COVID-19 treatment under the Sulperazon, Medrol, Zavicefta, Zithromax, Vfend, Panzyga, and Paxlovid brands. The company also provides medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, such as pneumococcal disease, meningococcal disease, tick-borne encephalitis, and COVID-19 under the Comirnaty/BNT162b2, Nimenrix, FSME/IMMUN-TicoVac, Trumenba, and the Prevnar family brands; biosimilars for chronic immune and inflammatory diseases under the Xeljanz, Enbrel, Inflectra, Eucrisa/Staquis, and Cibinqo brands; and amyloidosis, hemophilia, and endocrine diseases under the Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, BeneFIX, and Genotropin brands. In addition, the company is involved in the contract manufacturing business. It serves wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, clinics, government agencies, pharmacies, and individual provider offices, as well as disease control and prevention centers. The company has collaboration agreements with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; Astellas Pharma US, Inc.; Myovant Sciences Ltd.; Akcea Therapeutics, Inc; Merck KGaA; Valneva SE; BioNTech SE; and Arvinas, Inc. Pfizer Inc. was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in New York, New York.