Market Pulse46Neutral

Pfizer Inc.Opportunity Rank #202(PFE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$24.17

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$24.17
Price
$26.21
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 8%MOS: $20.97

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

75/100
Strong

+4 vs previous

Trend Score

28/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is estimated at $26.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.25% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is estimated at $26.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.25% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$26.21
8.44% upside
20% margin of safety: $20.97
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.85%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
8.4% discount to price
64
FCF Yield
10.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

75/100
Strong
+4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 189 (183 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
158 news sentiment+2.2
3 earnings beat+0.4
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
2 downgrade headlines-0.3
Analyst downgrades-0.2
6 legal risk+0.0

Trend Details

28/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.8%
Price vs 21 EMA39 · -1.8%
Price vs 50 EMA29 · -4.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA28 · -2.8%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.2%
6M RS vs SPY18 · -13.9%
Distance from 52W High69 · -15.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Pfizer Inc. shows a supportive narrative with an improving trend and a healthy free cash flow yield of 9.9%, but its fundamentals are weak with returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. The stock is slightly undervalued with a fair value upside of about 5.8%, yet the overall fundamental score remains bearish.
Key Risk
The key risk is Pfizer's return on invested capital significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital, indicating value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.25%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -10.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,486$14,334$15,653$12,607$32,503$35,291$17,194$15,182$18,023$18,687$17,900$16,008$18,466$19,230$18,381$21,900$12,967$17,792$19,939$15,233$19,644

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Pfizer Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Pfizer Inc.Healthcare

Pfizer Inc. is a global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the research, development, production, marketing, and distribution of a wide array of medicinal and vaccine products worldwide. Its comprehensive portfolio addresses diverse therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular health and women's health, featuring key brands such as the Premarin family and Eliquis. The company also offers advanced biologics, small molecule drugs, immunotherapies, and biosimilars for various conditions, exemplified by Ibrance, Xtandi, and Retacrit. Furthermore, Pfizer provides sterile injectables, anti-infective agents, and a significant oral treatment for COVID-19, including Paxlovid. A substantial portion of its offerings comprises vaccines for infectious diseases such as pneumococcal and meningococcal disease, tick-borne encephalitis, and COVID-19, with notable products like Comirnaty and the Prevnar family. The firm also develops biosimilars for chronic autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, including Inflectra and Xeljanz, alongside specialized therapies for rare conditions like amyloidosis, hemophilia, and endocrine disorders, under brands such as Vyndaqel and BeneFIX. Beyond its proprietary products, Pfizer operates a contract manufacturing division. Its extensive customer base includes wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, clinics, government agencies, pharmacies, individual medical practices, and public health organizations. The company actively fosters strategic collaborations with numerous partners, such as Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, BioNTech SE, and Merck KGaA. Established in 1849, Pfizer Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.