Market Pulse50Neutral

PetMed Express, Inc.Opportunity Rank #322(PETS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$2.30

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$2.30
Price
-$4.10
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 278%MOS: -$3.28

Fundamental Score

4/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of PetMed Express, Inc. (PETS) is estimated at $-4.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $2.30, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.16% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of PetMed Express, Inc. (PETS) is estimated at $-4.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $2.30, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.16% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$4.10
▼ -278.26% downside
20% margin of safety: -$3.28
Years: 10Growth Rate: -0.16%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-125.91%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

4/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
278.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-21.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -125.9% vs WACC 9.0% (-14.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
12
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-54.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (24th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 38%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 3 (3 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 news sentiment+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
PetMed Express, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 295% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and operational performance.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could further impair valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -0.16%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -54.94%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$10$10$9$33$20$43$41$46$38$58$41$33$14$14$21$31$29$19$20$18$11

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates PetMed Express, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

PetMed Express, Inc.Healthcare

PetMed Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a pet pharmacy in the United States. The company markets prescription and non-prescription pet medications, health products, and other supplies for dogs, cats, and horses. It offers non-prescription medications and supplies, such as flea and tick control products, bone and joint care products, vitamins, treats, nutritional supplements, hygiene products, and supplies; and prescription medications, including heartworm preventatives, flea and tick preventatives, arthritis, dermatitis, thyroid, diabetes, pain medications, heart/blood pressure, and other specialty medications, as well as generic substitutes. The company also sells food, beds, crates, stairs, and other pet supplies. It sells its products through its Internet website; mobile app; telephone contact center; and direct mail/print, which includes brochures and postcards, as well as television advertising under the 1-800-PetMeds and PetMeds brands. PetMed Express, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Delray Beach, Florida.