Market Pulse44Neutral

PetMed Express, Inc.(PETS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$1.81

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1.81
Price
-$9.84
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 644%MOS: -$7.87

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of PetMed Express, Inc. (PETS) is estimated at $-9.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.11% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.27%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of PetMed Express, Inc. (PETS) is estimated at $-9.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.11% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.27%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$9.84
-643.65% downside
20% margin of safety: -$7.87
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.11%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-137.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
643.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-61.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -137.8% vs WACC 9.0% (-15.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
82
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-56.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (72nd pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 42%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 7 (7 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
7 news sentiment+0.1

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
PetMed Express, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value far below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's financial performance may deteriorate further, exacerbating its already negative return on invested capital and free cash flow metrics.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.09%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -56.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
-$24$10$9$33$20$43$41$46$38$58$41$33$14$14$21$31$29$19$20$18

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates PetMed Express, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

PetMed Express, Inc.Healthcare

PetMed Express, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a prominent pet pharmacy across the United States. The company provides a comprehensive range of both prescribed and over-the-counter animal medications, health-related items, and other essential supplies for canines, felines, and equines. Their non-prescription offerings include products for flea and tick prevention, joint and bone care, vitamins, treats, nutritional supplements, hygiene essentials, and general pet supplies. For prescription needs, they supply heartworm and flea/tick preventatives, alongside medications for conditions such as arthritis, dermatitis, thyroid imbalances, diabetes, pain relief, and cardiovascular issues, often providing generic alternatives. Beyond pharmaceuticals, the company also retails pet food, bedding, crates, stairs, and various other accessories. PetMed Express engages with its clientele through multiple distribution channels: its official website, a dedicated mobile application, a telephone contact center, direct mail campaigns (like brochures and postcards), and television advertisements, frequently promoting its 1-800-PetMeds and PetMeds brands. The company was established in 1996 and is headquartered in Delray Beach, Florida.