Market Pulse44Neutral

PepsiCo, Inc.Opportunity Rank #137(PEP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$137.12

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$137.12
Price
$182.62
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 33%MOS: $146.10

Fundamental Score

55/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

27/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is estimated at $182.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $137.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is estimated at $182.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $137.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$182.62
33.18% upside
20% margin of safety: $146.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.58%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

55/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
33.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 175 (156 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
117 news sentiment+3.5
3 earnings beat+0.6
3 earnings miss-0.5
2 macro headwinds+0.3
Analyst downgrades-0.2
28 regulatory scrutiny+0.1

Trend Details

27/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA37 · -2.1%
Price vs 50 EMA28 · -4.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA30 · -2.6%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -19.4%
6M RS vs SPY18 · -13.7%
Distance from 52W High61 · -19.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
PepsiCo, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 27.8% above the current price and a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.9%. Despite returns trailing the estimated cost of capital, the stable and supportive narrative score of 71 underpins a medium-confidence buy recommendation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.77%5 Year CAGR: 1.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$17,630$16,502$17,825$18,960$16,018$16,241$14,853$13,881$12,697$12,963$13,444$13,338$13,365$12,483$11,193$12,283$11,701$8,924$9,445$9,364$8,152

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates PepsiCo, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

PepsiCo, Inc.Consumer Defensive

PepsiCo, Inc. is a global enterprise that creates, promotes, and supplies a diverse array of drinks and easy-to-prepare food items across the globe. Its operations are structured into seven primary divisions: Frito-Lay North America, Quaker Foods North America, PepsiCo Beverages North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa/Middle East/South Asia, and the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and China Region. The company's extensive product catalog encompasses popular snack foods like various dips, cheese snacks, spreads, and a range of chips (including corn, potato, and tortilla varieties). Its pantry staples feature cereals, rice, pasta, baking mixes, beverage syrups, granola bars, grits, oatmeal, rice cakes, and ready-made side dishes. In the beverage sector, PepsiCo offers concentrated syrups, fountain beverages, pre-packaged drinks, ready-to-consume teas, coffees, fruit juices, dairy-based items, and home carbonation systems with associated goods. PepsiCo reaches its broad clientele, which includes wholesale partners, food service providers, various retail outlets like supermarkets, pharmacies, convenience shops, discount stores, large-format retailers, membership-based stores, hard discount retailers, online merchants, and approved independent bottlers. This widespread distribution is achieved via direct store delivery, customer warehouse systems, and comprehensive distributor networks, along with direct sales to consumers through digital commerce channels and retail partners. Established in 1898, the corporation maintains its principal office in Purchase, New York.