Market Pulse50Neutral

PepsiCo, Inc.Opportunity Rank #154(PEP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$150.88

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$150.88
Price
$188.23
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 25%MOS: $150.58

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is estimated at $188.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $150.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.71% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is estimated at $188.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $150.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.71% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$188.23
24.75% upside
20% margin of safety: $150.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.71%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
24.8% discount to price
91
FCF Yield
8.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (23rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 190 (184 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
100 news sentiment+1.1
69 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
Upgrade headlines+0.2
7 earnings beat+0.2
3 legal risk-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
PepsiCo, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 26.9% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.0% and a stable narrative score of 71. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's fundamentals and buyback activity suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and growth prospects.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.71%5 Year CAGR: 0.32%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,502$16,502$17,825$18,960$16,018$16,241$14,853$13,881$12,697$12,963$13,444$13,338$13,365$12,483$11,193$12,283$11,701$8,924$9,445$9,364$8,152

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates PepsiCo, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

PepsiCo, Inc.Consumer Defensive

PepsiCo, Inc. manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through seven segments: Frito-Lay North America; Quaker Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; Latin America; Europe; Africa, Middle East and South Asia; and Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China Region. It provides dips, cheese-flavored snacks, and spreads, as well as corn, potato, and tortilla chips; cereals, rice, pasta, mixes and syrups, granola bars, grits, oatmeal, rice cakes, simply granola, and side dishes; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; ready-to-drink tea, coffee, and juices; dairy products; and sparkling water makers and related products. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.