Market Pulse50Neutral

Paycom Software, Inc.Opportunity Rank #28(PAYC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$126.59

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$126.59
Price
$375.61
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 197%MOS: $300.49

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is estimated at $375.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $126.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.08% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is estimated at $375.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $126.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.08% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$375.61
196.71% upside
20% margin of safety: $300.49
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.08%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.63%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
196.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.6% vs WACC 10.0% (0.9x)
43
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
24.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 55 (40 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
32 news sentiment+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Paycom Software, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 222.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 13.6%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.08%5 Year CAGR: 16.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$948$950$727$682$502$446$321$317$245$190$143$60$37$34$17$24

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Paycom Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Paycom Software, Inc.Technology

Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling/schedule exchange, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, and geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, Paycom pay, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment management, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning and content subscriptions, as well as my analytics, which offer employment predictor reporting. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collect, track, and manage the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.