Market Pulse44Neutral

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Opportunity Rank #176(PANW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$358.68

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$358.68
Price
$127.81
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 64%MOS: $102.25

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

98/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is estimated at $127.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $358.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.57% long-term growth rate and an 8.66% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is estimated at $127.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $358.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.57% long-term growth rate and an 8.66% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$127.81
-64.37% downside
20% margin of safety: $102.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.57%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.12%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
64.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.1% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
27.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (63rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 207 (157 News · 50 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
79 regulatory scrutiny+3.9
69 news sentiment+1.3
Upgrade headlines+0.2
4 downgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat-0.0
Earnings miss+0.0

Trend Details

98/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+108.9%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+80.2%
Price vs 21 EMA91 · +9.8%
Price vs 50 EMA99 · +24.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA98 · +13.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +108.9%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +80.2%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 43% relative to its estimated fair value of $148.4, with weak fundamentals reflected in a bearish score of 41 and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a supportive and stable narrative score of 80 indicating potential improvement, the stock's high price and negative ROIC versus WACC spread suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.08%5 Year CAGR: 20.66%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$4,140$3,962$3,414$2,924$2,178$1,619$1,250$1,187$1,149$1,032$731$384$125$137$92$45-$1-$12

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Technology

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls. It also offers Panorama, a sophisticated security management platform designed for centralized control of these firewall deployments, whether they are physical appliances, virtual instances, or situated in public or private cloud environments. Additionally, the firm provides virtual system upgrades to enhance the capacity of its physical firewall units. Complementing its core products, Palo Alto Networks delivers an extensive range of subscription services. These encompass robust threat prevention, protection against malware and advanced persistent threats, URL filtering, and security for both laptop and mobile devices. Further specialized subscriptions include DNS security, Internet of Things (IoT) security, SaaS security (via API and inline methods), threat intelligence, and data loss prevention. Beyond its product and subscription offerings, the company extends various expert services, such as cloud security, secure access solutions, security analytics and automation tools, and specialized cybersecurity consulting, often integrated with threat intelligence. Its professional services cover critical areas like architectural design and planning, system implementation, configuration, and seamless firewall migration. Educational resources, including certifications and both online and in-classroom training, are also available, alongside comprehensive support services. Palo Alto Networks distributes its security solutions both directly and through an extensive network of channel partners. Its diverse clientele primarily comprises medium to large-scale enterprises, service providers, and governmental organizations across a wide array of industries. These sectors include education, energy, financial services, healthcare, internet and media, manufacturing, the broader public sector, and telecommunications. Established in 2005, Palo Alto Networks maintains its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California.