Market Pulse50Neutral

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Opportunity Rank #175(PANW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$164.05

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$164.05
Price
$145.75
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $116.60

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is estimated at $145.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $164.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.04% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.41%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is estimated at $145.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $164.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.04% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.41%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$145.75
-11.16% downside
20% margin of safety: $116.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.04%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.2% premium to price
31
FCF Yield
3.5% trailing FCF yield
37
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.0% vs WACC 10.0% (0.6x)
30
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
25.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 227 (200 News · 27 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
108 regulatory scrutiny+3.8
84 news sentiment+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat-0.0
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
Margin pressure-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
WATCHConfidence: 43%
Thesis
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. currently trades slightly above its fair value with a neutral fundamental score and an improving narrative, supported by a strong market position and a net cash balance sheet. However, its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, suggesting patience is warranted before considering investment.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and future profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.04%5 Year CAGR: 19.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$3,883$3,962$3,414$2,924$2,178$1,619$1,250$1,187$1,149$1,032$731$384$125$137$92$45-$1-$12

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Technology

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions worldwide. The company offers firewall appliances and software; Panorama, a security management solution for the control of firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network and instances in public or private cloud environments, as a virtual or a physical appliance; and virtual system upgrades, which are available as extensions to the virtual system capacity that ships with physical appliances. It also provides subscription services covering the areas of threat prevention, malware and persistent threat, uniform resource locator filtering, laptop and mobile device protection, and firewall; and DNS security, Internet of Things security, SaaS security API, and SaaS security inline, as well as threat intelligence, and data loss prevention. In addition, the company offers cloud security, secure access, security analytics and automation, and threat intelligence and cyber security consulting; professional services, including architecture design and planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration; education services, such as certifications, as well as online and in-classroom training; and support services. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. sells its products and services through its channel partners, as well as directly to medium to large enterprises, service providers, and government entities operating in various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government entities, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.