Market Pulse47Neutral

Occidental Petroleum CorporationOpportunity Rank #104(OXY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$52.89

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$52.89
Price
$214.46
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 305%MOS: $171.57

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

+7 vs previous

Trend Score

42/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is estimated at $214.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $52.89, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.70% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is estimated at $214.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $52.89, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.70% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$214.46
▲ 305.48% upside
20% margin of safety: $171.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
305.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
30.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.1% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
6
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
+7 vs previous · +5 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (36th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 77 (70 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
63 news sentiment+0.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.8
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

42/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+19.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-3.3%
Price vs 21 EMA57 · +1.1%
Price vs 50 EMA39 · -2.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA24 · -3.3%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.7%
6M RS vs SPY90 · +19.6%
Distance from 52W High60 · -20.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is undervalued with an estimated fair value 276% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 28%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust buybacks and cash flow growth, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential value destruction if this trend persists.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.70%5 Year CAGR: 3.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$15,763$16,959$18,457$18,553$21,160$13,304$6,490$13,742$12,644$8,460$6,215$8,623$19,456$20,741$21,538$19,799$13,289$9,394$20,017$11,676$9,358

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Occidental Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Occidental Petroleum CorporationEnergy

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.