Market Pulse50Neutral

Occidental Petroleum CorporationOpportunity Rank #89(OXY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$60.31

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$60.31
Price
$227.21
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 277%MOS: $181.77

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

83/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is estimated at $227.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $60.31, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.79% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is estimated at $227.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $60.31, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.79% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$227.21
▲ 276.74% upside
20% margin of safety: $181.77
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.38%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
276.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
28.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
54
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

83/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 131 (114 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
90 news sentiment+3.1
3 analyst upgrades+0.4
2 downgrade headlines+0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
16 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 earnings beat-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 274% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a positive narrative trend. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, making it an attractive buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) trailing its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential value destruction if this trend persists.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.80%5 Year CAGR: 4.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,959$16,959$18,457$18,553$21,160$13,304$6,490$13,742$12,644$8,460$6,215$8,623$19,456$20,741$21,538$19,799$13,289$9,394$20,017$11,676$9,358

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Occidental Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Occidental Petroleum CorporationEnergy

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The company's Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. Its Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. This segment also trades around its assets consisting of transportation and storage capacity; and invests in entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.