O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Opportunity Rank #125(ORLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$88.70
Last updated: Mar 24, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
The intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is estimated at $86.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.51% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is estimated at $86.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.51% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Investment Coach
- Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
- ROIC staying above cost of capital over coming quarters.
- Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. Its stores offer auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. The company's stores also provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Its stores offer do-it-yourself and professional service provider customers a selection of products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.