Market Pulse46Neutral

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Opportunity Rank #187(ORLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$86.28

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$86.28
Price
$92.04
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 7%MOS: $73.63

Fundamental Score

69/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

29/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is estimated at $92.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $86.28, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.55% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is estimated at $92.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $86.28, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.55% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$92.04
6.68% upside
20% margin of safety: $73.63
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.55%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
14.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

69/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
6.7% discount to price
61
FCF Yield
5.8% trailing FCF yield
96
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 14.4% vs WACC 7.0% (2.1x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
1.5x net debt to FCF
44
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (75th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 70%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 23 (15 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
13 news sentiment+0.4
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

29/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA37 · -2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA33 · -3.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA37 · -1.6%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -19.6%
6M RS vs SPY17 · -14.5%
Distance from 52W High60 · -20.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital by 7.4 percentage points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.6%, supporting a bullish investment stance. The stock is slightly undervalued with a fair value upside of approximately 6.6%, suggesting potential for appreciation with patience.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the ROIC may fall below the cost of capital in future quarters, undermining the company's profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.55%5 Year CAGR: 2.68%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,166$3,931$4,073$4,040$3,712$3,650$3,302$2,337$2,232$1,870$1,987$1,760$1,620$1,304$1,552$1,447$1,069$700$640$582$415

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States. The company's comprehensive inventory includes both new and reconditioned vehicle hard parts and essential maintenance items. This expansive selection covers critical components such as alternators, batteries, brake system parts, belts, chassis and driveline components, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control systems, and water pumps. Additionally, they supply consumables like antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, various fluids, lighting solutions, oil, and wiper blades. Their accessory range features items like floor mats, seat covers, and specific truck enhancements. Beyond just parts, O'Reilly's outlets also stock auto body paint and related materials, a wide array of automotive tools, and specialized equipment catering to professional service providers. Customers can also benefit from a suite of value-added services and programs offered in-store. These include recycling initiatives for used oil, oil filters, and batteries; complimentary installation services for batteries, wiper blades, and light bulbs; comprehensive diagnostic testing for batteries, electrical systems, and vehicle modules; retrieval of check engine light codes; a convenient loaner tool program; resurfacing services for brake drums and rotors; custom hydraulic hose fabrication; and professional-grade paint shop mixing with associated materials. O'Reilly's stores serve a diverse clientele, providing an extensive product assortment for both individual do-it-yourself (DIY) mechanics and professional auto repair facilities, covering domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a significant retail presence, operating 5,759 stores throughout the United States and an additional 25 locations in Mexico. Established in 1957, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq