Market Pulse50Neutral

Oracle CorporationOpportunity Rank #74(ORCL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$154.23

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$154.23
Price
$420.80
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 173%MOS: $336.64

Fundamental Score

72/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is estimated at $420.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $154.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is estimated at $420.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $154.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$420.80
172.84% upside
20% margin of safety: $336.64
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.27%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

72/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
172.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
16.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
1.5x net debt to FCF
46
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
37.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 230 (200 News · 30 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
111 news sentiment+4.5
29 regulatory scrutiny+2.5
2 upgrade headlines+0.6
52 legal risk+0.6
2 earnings beat+0.3
Downgrade headlines-0.2

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Oracle Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 175.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish score of 72. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows robust free cash flow growth and active buybacks, indicating potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
Oracle's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.68%5 Year CAGR: 31.83%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$71,764$42,036$25,539$25,860$14,050$18,022$14,703$16,211$17,122$16,147$14,750$15,727$15,501$14,874$14,391$11,664$8,911$8,784$7,645$5,839$4,777

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Oracle Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Oracle CorporationTechnology

Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management, Oracle Advertising, and NetSuite applications suite, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle application licenses; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database, an enterprise database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, MySQL HeatWave, Internet-of-Things, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware services; and consulting and customer services. The company markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.