Market Pulse59Neutral

Opendoor Technologies Inc.Opportunity Rank #134(OPEN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$5.32

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.32
Price
$21.86
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 311%MOS: $17.49

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

33/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) is estimated at $21.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.32, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 13.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) is estimated at $21.86 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.32, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 13.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$21.86
▲ 310.90% upside
20% margin of safety: $17.49
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-90.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
310.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
26.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -90.1% vs WACC 10.0% (-9.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
72
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 77%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 32 (32 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
28 news sentiment-0.1
Earnings beat-0.0

Trend Details

33/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-52.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.7%
Price vs 21 EMA28 · -3.7%
Price vs 50 EMA34 · -3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA54 · +0.5%
3M RS vs SPY33 · -4.1%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.6%
Distance from 52W High0 · -52.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 22h ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Opendoor Technologies Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 326% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's healthy free cash flow and neutral fundamental score suggest potential for upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative return on invested capital significantly below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 263.87%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 485.08%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$1,094$1,061-$570$2,381$767-$5,761$699-$244-$1,160-$216

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Opendoor Technologies Inc.Real Estate

Opendoor Technologies Inc. operates a digital platform for residential real estate in the United States. The company's platform enables consumers to buy and sell a home online. It also provides title insurance and escrow services. Opendoor Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.