Market Pulse63Bullish

Opendoor Technologies Inc.Opportunity Rank #94(OPEN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$4.77

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$4.77
Price
$21.55
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 352%MOS: $17.24

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

42/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) is estimated at $21.55 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.77, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) is estimated at $21.55 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.77, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$21.55
▲ 352.26% upside
20% margin of safety: $17.24
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-110.08%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
352.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
30.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -110.1% vs WACC 10.0% (-11.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
72
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 80%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 39 (39 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 news sentiment+1.1
Margin pressure-0.1
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0

Trend Details

42/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-54.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-31.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-0.7%
Price vs 21 EMA54 · +0.7%
Price vs 50 EMA50 · -0.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA44 · -0.7%
3M RS vs SPY48 · -0.6%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -31.7%
Distance from 52W High0 · -54.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Opendoor Technologies Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 400% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's narrative remains strong and stable, indicating potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may hinder sustainable value creation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 263.87%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 485.08%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$1,094$1,061-$570$2,381$767-$5,761$699-$244-$1,160-$216

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Opendoor Technologies Inc.Real Estate

Founded in 2013, Opendoor Technologies Inc. provides a digital ecosystem for residential real estate transactions throughout the United States. This platform allows individuals to efficiently purchase and sell homes entirely online. Based in Tempe, Arizona, the company further offers supporting services like title insurance and escrow.