Market Pulse59Neutral

On Holding AGOpportunity Rank #214(ONON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$35.65

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$35.65
Price
$32.77
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 8%MOS: $26.22

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $32.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $35.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.85% long-term growth rate and a 12.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $32.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $35.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.85% long-term growth rate and a 12.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$32.77
▼ -8.08% downside
20% margin of safety: $26.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.85%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
8.1% premium to price
37
FCF Yield
4.7% trailing FCF yield
67
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.0% vs WACC 8.0% (1.3x)
63
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
156.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 56 (47 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+1.2
Earnings beat+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
3 legal risk-0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-25.7%
Distance from 52-Week High-41.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-4.7%
Price vs 21 EMA44 · -1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA24 · -5.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA17 · -4.7%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -25.7%
6M RS vs SPY22 · -11.2%
Distance from 52W High16 · -41.9%

Investment Coach

Updated 21h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
On Holding AG demonstrates strong fundamentals with a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 2.0 points and a net cash balance sheet, supporting a bullish investment stance despite its current valuation being slightly above fair value. The company's free cash flow growth and solid fundamental scores indicate constructive long-term potential.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and valuation near fair value suggest potential downside if ROIC fails to stay above the cost of capital or if market sentiment shifts negatively.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Significant shifts in narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 40.80%5 Year CAGR: 51.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$550$503$737$358-$184$68$5$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates On Holding AG's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

On Holding AGConsumer Cyclical

On Holding AG develops and distributes sports products worldwide. It offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company offers its products through independent retailers and distributors, online, and stores. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.