Market Pulse63Bullish

On Holding AGOpportunity Rank #190(ONON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$38.54

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$38.54
Price
$34.26
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $27.41

Fundamental Score

65/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $34.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.92% long-term growth rate and a 12.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $34.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.92% long-term growth rate and a 12.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$34.26
▼ -11.11% downside
20% margin of safety: $27.41
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.1% premium to price
31
FCF Yield
4.5% trailing FCF yield
63
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.2% vs WACC 8.0% (1.3x)
64
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
160.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (61st pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 40 (35 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
34 news sentiment+0.6
Upgrade headlines+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.3%
Price vs 21 EMA+4.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+3.3%
Price vs 21 EMA73 · +4.1%
Price vs 50 EMA66 · +3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA43 · -0.8%
3M RS vs SPY54 · +0.9%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.3%
Distance from 52W High42 · -28.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
On Holding AG demonstrates a solid investment case with a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 2.2 percentage points and constructive fundamentals supported by a strong free cash flow growth rate. Despite a current valuation slightly above fair value, the company's net cash position and stable narrative trend support a medium-confidence buy recommendation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price does not decline to a more attractive valuation discount, limiting upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 41.87%5 Year CAGR: 54.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$582$485$712$346-$178$66$5$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates On Holding AG's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

On Holding AGConsumer Cyclical

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.