Market Pulse50Neutral

On Holding AGOpportunity Rank #166(ONON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$39.86

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$39.86
Price
$32.51
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 18%MOS: $26.01

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $32.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.86% long-term growth rate and a 12.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $32.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.86% long-term growth rate and a 12.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$32.51
▼ -18.44% downside
20% margin of safety: $26.01
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.86%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.4% premium to price
19
FCF Yield
4.1% trailing FCF yield
53
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.0% vs WACC 8.0% (1.3x)
63
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
156.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (23rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 73 (59 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
52 news sentiment+0.2
6 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
13 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
On Holding AG's shares appear fully priced with a current price above the estimated fair value, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong ROIC exceeding the cost of capital by 2.0 points. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with net cash and demonstrates solid free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is a potential decline in ROIC below the cost of capital, which could undermine the company's valuation and fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC staying above cost of capital over coming quarters
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 40.80%5 Year CAGR: 51.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$545$498$730$354-$183$67$5$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates On Holding AG's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

On Holding AGConsumer Cyclical

On Holding AG develops and distributes sports products worldwide. It offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company offers its products through independent retailers and distributors, online, and stores. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.