Market Pulse44Neutral

Ondas Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #307(ONDS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$8.89

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$8.89
Price
$3.02
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 66%MOS: $2.42

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

24/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is estimated at $3.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -45.98% long-term growth rate and a 12.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is estimated at $3.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -45.98% long-term growth rate and a 12.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$3.02
▼ -66.03% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: -45.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-14.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -15.0% vs WACC 9.0% (-1.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
18.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-57.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 67 (65 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 regulatory scrutiny+1.6
49 news sentiment+1.1
Upgrade headlines+0.3
Earnings beat+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

24/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-11.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-12.2%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.0%
Price vs 50 EMA7 · -12.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA39 · -1.3%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -26.4%
6M RS vs SPY75 · +9.8%
Distance from 52W High27 · -36.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Ondas Holdings Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 66% above the estimated fair value of $3.15, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a somewhat supportive narrative score, the company's financial health and cash flow trends remain concerning.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration in Ondas Holdings' return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -45.99%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -56.82%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
-$81-$37-$32-$34-$35-$16-$7-$14-$80$0$0$-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ondas Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ondas Holdings Inc.Technology

Ondas Holdings Inc. delivers specialized private wireless, uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV), and automated data solutions through its operating subsidiaries. The company is structured into two main segments: Ondas Networks and American Robotics. Ondas Networks is responsible for the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and support of FullMAX, an advanced software-defined radio (SDR) platform for wide-area broadband communication. This FullMAX SDR system guarantees highly secure, dependable, and robust industrial-grade connectivity vital for mission-critical applications. American Robotics, the second segment, offers a comprehensive automated drone ecosystem. This includes the AI-driven Scout Drone, equipped with imaging capabilities; the durable ScoutBase, which functions as a housing, charging, data processing, and cloud transfer hub; and ScoutView, their dedicated analytics and user interface software package. Ondas caters to a diverse range of critical sectors, including railway systems, energy, mining, agriculture, and essential infrastructure, serving clients both domestically in the United States and internationally. The corporate headquarters for Ondas Holdings Inc. are located in Waltham, Massachusetts.