Market Pulse50Neutral

Ondas Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #316(ONDS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$10.33

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$10.33
Price
$1.53
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 85%MOS: $1.22

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is estimated at $1.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.33, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -38.52% long-term growth rate and a 12.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is estimated at $1.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.33, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -38.52% long-term growth rate and a 12.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.53
▼ -85.19% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: -38.52%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-17.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
85.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -17.4% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
13.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-45.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (75th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 70 (63 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
45 news sentiment+2.5
17 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Ondas Holdings Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 85% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental profile and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative score, the company's financial health and cash flow metrics remain weak, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued poor financial performance, including a negative ROIC spread and declining free cash flow, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor if the stock price approaches at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track improvements in the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of sustained operational recovery.
  • Observe the narrative score trend for meaningful positive shifts indicating potential turnaround.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -38.52%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -48.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
-$34-$32-$34-$35-$16-$7-$14-$80$0$0$-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ondas Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ondas Holdings Inc.Technology

Ondas Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides private wireless, drone, and automated data solutions. The company operates in two segments, Ondas Networks and American Robotics. The company designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and supports FullMAX, a software defined radio (SDR) platform for wide-area broadband networks. Its FullMAX SDR platform enables secure and reliable industrial-grade connectivity for truly mission-critical applications. The company also offers Scout Drone, an AI-powered drone with imaging payloads; the ScoutBase, a ruggedized base station for housing, charging, data processing, and cloud transfer; and ScoutView, an American robotics analytics and user interface software package. It serves users in rail, energy, mining, agriculture, and critical infrastructure markets in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.