Market Pulse50Neutral

Okta, Inc.Opportunity Rank #53(OKTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$81.10

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$81.10
Price
$153.19
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 89%MOS: $122.55

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is estimated at $153.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $81.10, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is estimated at $153.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $81.10, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$153.19
88.89% upside
20% margin of safety: $122.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
88.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
6.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
45.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 111 (83 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 regulatory scrutiny+1.3
44 news sentiment+0.6
5 earnings beat+0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Okta, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 98% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish narrative score. The company's free cash flow growth and valuation metrics indicate attractive upside potential despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the deteriorating narrative trend which may signal weakening investor sentiment or operational challenges ahead.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 19.78%5 Year CAGR: 44.96%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
$928$770$536$109$121$145$84$38-$13-$30-$35-$30

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Okta, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Okta, Inc.Technology

Okta, Inc. provides identity solutions for enterprises, small and medium-sized businesses, universities, non-profits, and government agencies in the United States and internationally. The company offers Okta Identity Cloud, a platform that offers a suite of products and services, such as Universal Directory, a cloud-based system of record to store and secure user, application, and device profiles for an organization; Single Sign-On that enables users to access applications in the cloud or on-premise from various devices; Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication provides a layer of security for cloud, mobile, Web applications, and data; Lifecycle Management that enables IT organizations or developers to manage a user's identity throughout its lifecycle; API Access Management that enables organizations to secure APIs; Access Gateway that enables organizations to extend the Okta Identity Cloud from the cloud to their existing on-premise applications; and Advanced Server Access to secure cloud infrastructure. It also provides Auth0 products, including Universal Login that allows customers to provide login experience across different applications and devices; Attack Protection, a suite of security capabilities that protect from malicious traffics; Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication that minimizes friction to end users; Passwordless authentication enables users to login without a password and supports in various login methods; Machine to Machine provides standards-based authentication and authorization; private Cloud that allows customers to run a dedicated cloud instance of Auth0; and Organizations that enables customers to independent configurations, login experiences, and security options. It offers customer support, training, and professional services. It sells its products directly to customers through sales force and channel partners. The company was formerly known as Saasure, Inc. Okta, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.