Market Pulse63Bullish

Okta, Inc.Opportunity Rank #16(OKTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$138.63

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$138.63
Price
$157.46
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 14%MOS: $125.97

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

78/100
Strong

+12 vs previous

Trend Score

94/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is estimated at $157.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.63, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.18%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is estimated at $157.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.63, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.18%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$157.46
13.58% upside
20% margin of safety: $125.97
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
13.6% discount to price
73
FCF Yield
4.1% trailing FCF yield
52
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.3% vs WACC 7.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
45.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

78/100
Strong
+12 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 104 (68 News · 36 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
24 regulatory scrutiny+1.7
38 news sentiment+0.6
Upgrade headlines+0.3
3 analyst upgrades+0.2
5 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

94/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+93.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+14.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+38.3%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA98 · +20.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA99 · +14.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +93.6%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +38.3%
Distance from 52W High86 · -6.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 67%
Thesis
Okta, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 40.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a robust narrative score. The company demonstrates solid free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for long-term shareholder value creation.
Key Risk
Returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, which may pressure future profitability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 19.79%5 Year CAGR: 45.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
$939$770$536$109$121$145$84$38-$13-$30-$35-$30

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Okta, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Okta, Inc.Technology

Okta, Inc. delivers comprehensive identity management solutions tailored for a diverse clientele, including large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organizations, and governmental bodies, operating both within the United States and globally. The company's flagship offering is the Okta Identity Cloud, a robust platform featuring a suite of integrated products and services. These include a Universal Directory, a cloud-based system designed to securely store and manage user, application, and device profiles; Single Sign-On (SSO), enabling seamless access to cloud-based or on-premises applications from multiple devices; and Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, which adds an extra layer of security for various applications and data. Further components encompass Lifecycle Management for overseeing a user's digital identity journey, API Access Management for securing interfaces, an Access Gateway to extend cloud capabilities to on-premises applications, and Advanced Server Access for safeguarding cloud infrastructure. Additionally, Okta incorporates Auth0's product portfolio. This includes Universal Login for consistent user authentication experiences across different apps and devices; Attack Protection, a suite of features to counter malicious online activity; Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, providing strong security with minimal user inconvenience; and Passwordless authentication, allowing users to log in through diverse methods without traditional passwords. Other Auth0 offerings are Machine to Machine (M2M) authentication and authorization built on industry standards; Private Cloud, for deploying dedicated Auth0 instances; and Organizations, providing independent configurations, login flows, and security settings for different groups. Okta further provides comprehensive customer assistance, educational programs, and specialized professional services. The company distributes its offerings directly via its sales teams and through a network of channel partners. Originally established as Saasure, Inc. in 2009, Okta, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in San Francisco, California.