Market Pulse50Neutral

Oklo Inc.Opportunity Rank #316(OKLO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$56.26

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$56.26
Price
$8.12
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 86%MOS: $6.50

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is estimated at $8.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $56.26, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -51.74% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.43%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is estimated at $8.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $56.26, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -51.74% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.43%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$8.12
▼ -85.57% downside
20% margin of safety: $6.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: -51.74%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-15.6%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
85.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -15.6% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
25.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (95th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 112 (103 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
85 news sentiment+1.7
18 regulatory scrutiny+1.5
Analyst upgrades+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Oklo Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 85% above estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative but weak fundamentals. The company shows poor returns with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating operational inefficiency.
Key Risk
Continued negative returns relative to cost of capital and weak fundamentals could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -51.74%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -53.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$49-$49-$38-$16-$10-$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Oklo Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Oklo Inc.Utilities

Oklo Inc. designs and develops fission power plants to provide reliable and commercial-scale energy to customers in the United States. It also provides used nuclear fuel recycling services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Santa Clara, California.