Market Pulse46Neutral

Oklo Inc.Opportunity Rank #314(OKLO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$48.85

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$48.85
Price
$12.83
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 74%MOS: $10.26

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

-10 vs previous

Trend Score

12/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is estimated at $12.83 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.25% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.50%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is estimated at $12.83 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.25% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.50%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$12.83
▼ -73.74% downside
20% margin of safety: $10.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-9.71%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -9.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-1.4x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
99.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
-10 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 125 (120 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
98 news sentiment+1.1
21 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
Restructuring+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

12/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-71.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-59.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-16.4%
Price vs 21 EMA8 · -9.1%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -16.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA6 · -8.0%
3M RS vs SPY19 · -8.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -59.4%
Distance from 52W High0 · -71.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Oklo Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 77% above estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental profile including negative returns on invested capital. Despite an improving narrative score, the company's financial health and returns do not justify investment at current levels.
Key Risk
Continued negative spread between ROIC and WACC and weak fundamentals could further deteriorate shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.26%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -45.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$22-$49-$38-$16-$10-$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Oklo Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Oklo Inc.Industrials

Oklo Inc. develops advanced fission power plants to provide clean, reliable, and affordable energy at scale to customers in the United States. The company’s primary offering is the Aurora powerhouse, which is designed to produce between 15 and up to 75 megawatts of electricity. The company is also commercializing nuclear fuel recycling, fuel fabrication technology that can convert used nuclear fuel into usable fuel for its reactors, and the production of radioisotopes. The company has a strategic partnership with Blykalla AB for the development of advanced nuclear reactor technology and its commercialization. The company was formerly known as AltC Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Oklo Inc. in May 2024. Oklo Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.