Market Pulse59Neutral

Oklo Inc.Opportunity Rank #279(OKLO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$71.83

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$71.83
Price
$8.11
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 89%MOS: $6.49

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is estimated at $8.11 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $71.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -51.74% long-term growth rate and a 9.57% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is estimated at $8.11 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $71.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -51.74% long-term growth rate and a 9.57% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$8.11
▼ -88.71% downside
20% margin of safety: $6.49
Years: 10Growth Rate: -51.74%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-15.6%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
88.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -15.6% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
25.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (65th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 156 (147 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
120 news sentiment+1.0
27 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-58.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-49.0%
Price vs 50 EMA+10.0%
Price vs 21 EMA84 · +7.0%
Price vs 50 EMA87 · +10.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA72 · +2.8%
3M RS vs SPY31 · -4.8%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -49.0%
Distance from 52W High0 · -58.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Oklo Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 89% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company's elevated leverage and deteriorating narrative trend further undermine its investment appeal.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in operational performance and failure to improve returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could exacerbate losses.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained periods.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -51.74%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -53.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$49-$49-$38-$16-$10-$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Oklo Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Oklo Inc.Utilities

Oklo Inc. designs and develops fission power plants to provide reliable and commercial-scale energy to customers in the United States. It also provides used nuclear fuel recycling services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Santa Clara, California.