Market Pulse44Neutral

Nextpower Inc.Opportunity Rank #226(NXT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$129.07

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$129.07
Price
$87.24
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 32%MOS: $69.79

Fundamental Score

55/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

63/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is estimated at $87.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.07, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.13% long-term growth rate and an 11.32% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is estimated at $87.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.07, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.13% long-term growth rate and an 11.32% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$87.24
▼ -32.41% downside
20% margin of safety: $69.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.13%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

55/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
32.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.1% trailing FCF yield
28
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.7% vs WACC 9.0% (1.4x)
71
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
44.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 77 (53 News · 24 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
44 news sentiment+0.8
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 legal risk-0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
24 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

63/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+39.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-17.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+1.8%
Price vs 21 EMA53 · +0.5%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.8%
3M RS vs SPY42 · -1.9%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +39.5%
Distance from 52W High65 · -17.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 43%
Thesis
Nextpower Inc. currently trades at a significant premium with its price about 27% above estimated fair value, despite a constructive fundamental profile and a return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeding its cost of capital by 3.5 points. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash and shows promising free cash flow growth, warranting a watch status for potential entry at a more attractive valuation.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and premium valuation pose risks if ROIC fails to sustain above the cost of capital or if the market sentiment worsens.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful improvement or stabilization.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 35.36%5 Year CAGR: 44.15%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$605$690$436$111-$141$97$243-$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nextpower Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nextpower Inc.Technology

Nextracker Inc. is an energy solutions provider specializing in solar tracking systems for photovoltaic (PV) installations. Their product lineup encompasses a variety of solar trackers, such as Bifacial PV modules tailored for extensive solar farms, the NX Horizon for typical solar power plants, and the NX Gemini, a two-in-portrait tracker designed to maximize the long-term value and operational efficiency for both project developers and asset owners. Additionally, they offer the NX Horizon XTR, a robust all-terrain solar tracker. Complementing their hardware, Nextracker provides advanced software solutions, including TrueCapture, an intelligent, adaptive control system for optimizing PV power plant performance, and NX Navigator, software for operational oversight and risk management. Established in 2013, the company is headquartered in Fremont, California, and operates as a subsidiary of Flex Ltd.