Market Pulse44Neutral

Nextpower Inc.Opportunity Rank #236(NXT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$103.10

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$103.10
Price
$82.77
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 20%MOS: $66.22

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is estimated at $82.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $103.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.09% long-term growth rate and an 11.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is estimated at $82.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $103.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.09% long-term growth rate and an 11.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$82.77
▼ -19.72% downside
20% margin of safety: $66.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.71%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
19.7% premium to price
17
FCF Yield
3.9% trailing FCF yield
47
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.7% vs WACC 9.0% (1.4x)
71
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
44.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (78th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 69 (43 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 upgrade headlines+0.6
36 news sentiment+0.4
Analyst upgrades+0.3
Earnings beat+0.2
2 legal risk-0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA-12.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-8.4%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.4%
Price vs 21 EMA10 · -8.4%
Price vs 50 EMA6 · -12.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA18 · -4.5%
3M RS vs SPY17 · -9.4%
6M RS vs SPY53 · +1.2%
Distance from 52W High32 · -34.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
WATCHConfidence: 43%
Thesis
Nextpower Inc. currently trades at a significant premium with its price about 27% above estimated fair value, despite a constructive fundamental profile and a return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeding its cost of capital by 3.5 points. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash and shows promising free cash flow growth, warranting a watch status for potential entry at a more attractive valuation.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and premium valuation pose risks if ROIC fails to sustain above the cost of capital or if the market sentiment worsens.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful improvement or stabilization.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 35.36%5 Year CAGR: 44.15%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$605$690$436$111-$141$97$243-$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nextpower Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nextpower Inc.Technology

Nextpower, Inc. engages in the provision of integrated solar tracker and software solutions used in utility-scale and ground-mounted distributed generation solar projects. Its products enable solar panels in utility-scale power plants to follow the sun's movement across the sky and optimize plant performance. The company was founded by Daniel S. Shugar, Alexander Au, Nicholas Miller, Michael Mehavich, Marco Garcia, and Tyroan Hardy in 2013 and is headquartered in Fremont, CA.