Market Pulse44Neutral

NXP Semiconductors N.V.Opportunity Rank #236(NXPI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$323.24

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$323.24
Price
$161.99
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 50%MOS: $129.59

Fundamental Score

26/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

92/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is estimated at $161.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $323.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.41% long-term growth rate and a 10.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is estimated at $161.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $323.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.41% long-term growth rate and a 10.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$161.99
-49.89% downside
20% margin of safety: $129.59
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.41%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

26/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
49.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.8% trailing FCF yield
46
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.1% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
13
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (33rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 71 (48 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 news sentiment+0.8
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
3 analyst downgrades-0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

92/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+54.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+33.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-2.8%
Price vs 21 EMA80 · +5.8%
Price vs 50 EMA92 · +13.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA90 · +6.9%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +54.1%
6M RS vs SPY98 · +33.9%
Distance from 52W High94 · -2.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
NXP Semiconductors N.V. is currently overvalued with its price trading approximately 37% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns below its cost of capital. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions and a broken narrative trend, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, potentially leading to sustained value erosion.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.41%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.58%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008
$3,135$3,357$3,658$4,519$5,122$4,009$3,004$3,001$5,030$3,065$2,751$1,683$1,833$1,141$1,002$411$634-$641-$207

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NXP Semiconductors N.V.Technology

NXP Semiconductors N.V. specializes in the design and production of a broad array of semiconductor solutions. Its extensive portfolio encompasses various processing units, such as microcontrollers, application processors (including the popular i.MX series and its 8 and 9 families), and communication processors. NXP also provides advanced wireless connectivity solutions, featuring technologies like near-field communication (NFC), ultra-wideband (UWB), Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), Zigbee, and integrated Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth Systems-on-Chip (SoCs). Furthermore, its offerings extend to analog and interface devices, radio frequency power amplifiers, and robust security controllers. The company also develops semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including components for pressure, motion (inertial), magnetic fields, and gyroscopic measurements. These solutions find critical applications across diverse sectors, including the automotive industry, industrial automation, the Internet of Things (IoT), mobile computing, and communication infrastructure. NXP distributes its products globally, serving original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), contract manufacturers, and a network of distributors. Its operational footprint spans key global regions, including China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, in addition to its broader international reach. Founded in 2006, the company initially operated as KASLION Acquisition B.V. before adopting its current name, NXP Semiconductors N.V., in May 2010. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.