Market Pulse44Neutral

Novo Nordisk A/SOpportunity Rank #4(NVO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$50.32

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$50.32
Price
$166.37
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 231%MOS: $133.10

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

67/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is estimated at $166.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $50.32, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.56%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is estimated at $166.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $50.32, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.56%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$166.37
▲ 230.62% upside
20% margin of safety: $133.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.77%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.39%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
230.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.4% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
57
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
88
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (70th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 90%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 167 (167 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
141 news sentiment+3.3
21 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

67/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.2%
Price vs 50 EMA+8.5%
Price vs 21 EMA72 · +3.9%
Price vs 50 EMA84 · +8.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA81 · +4.5%
3M RS vs SPY94 · +17.0%
6M RS vs SPY8 · -22.2%
Distance from 52W High40 · -29.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
BUYConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Novo Nordisk A/S is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 272% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 17% and a bullish fundamental score of 81. The company's narrative score is improving and stable, indicating positive market sentiment and growth prospects.
Key Risk
The key risk is if the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.77%5 Year CAGR: 27.01%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$31,545$32,012$26,360$22,615$14,328$9,546$11,328$8,877$8,726$7,622$8,657$6,838$5,512$4,527$3,953$3,780$3,607$2,822$2,286$1,901$1,692

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Novo Nordisk A/S's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Novo Nordisk A/SHealthcare

Novo Nordisk A/S is a global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the investigation, creation, manufacturing, and distribution of medicinal products across a vast international footprint. Its market presence extends throughout Europe, the Middle East, Africa, various parts of Asia (including Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), and North America. The company's operations are structured into two principal business units: Diabetes and Obesity Care, and Rare Disease. The Diabetes and Obesity Care division delivers therapies for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular ailments, and other emerging therapeutic areas. Meanwhile, the Rare Disease division concentrates on providing treatments for rare blood disorders, uncommon endocrine conditions, and hormone replacement solutions. In addition to its core pharmaceutical offerings, Novo Nordisk produces specialized medical equipment such as insulin pens, growth hormone pens, and injection needles. It also pioneers smart digital solutions for diabetes management, including advanced insulin pens and the Dose Check application, designed to guide insulin dosage. The company engages in strategic alliances, notably a partnership with UNICEF to combat childhood obesity and a collaboration with Valo Health, Inc. to discover and advance novel drug pipelines in the cardiometabolic space. Founded in 1923, Novo Nordisk A/S is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.