Market Pulse50Neutral

Novo Nordisk A/SOpportunity Rank #22(NVO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$36.82

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$36.82
Price
$135.30
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 267%MOS: $108.24

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is estimated at $135.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.82, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.70% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is estimated at $135.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.82, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.70% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$135.30
▲ 267.46% upside
20% margin of safety: $108.24
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.55%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
267.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.6% vs WACC 10.0% (1.2x)
58
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
90
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (98th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 202 (200 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
157 news sentiment+3.8
5 downgrade headlines-0.2
Guidance cut-0.1
4 upgrade headlines+0.1
18 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
4 promotions/discounting-0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Novo Nordisk A/S is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 277% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 17.3%. The company's improving narrative and positive ROIC spread over WACC further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.70%5 Year CAGR: 23.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$28,246$32,466$26,734$22,936$14,531$9,681$11,488$9,002$8,849$7,730$8,780$6,935$5,591$4,591$4,009$3,834$3,659$2,862$2,318$1,928$1,716

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Novo Nordisk A/S's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Novo Nordisk A/SHealthcare

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, North America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity Care, and Rare Disease. The Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas. The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of rare blood disorders, rare endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company also provides insulin pens, growth hormone pens, and injection needles. In addition, it offers smart solutions for diabetes treatment, such as smart insulin pens and Dose Check, an insulin dose guidance application. The company has a collaboration agreement with UNICEF to tackle childhood obesity; and with Valo Health, Inc. to discover and develop novel drug programmes for cardiometabolic space. Novo Nordisk A/S was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.