Market Pulse59Neutral

NVIDIA CorporationOpportunity Rank #165(NVDA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$211.50

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$211.50
Price
$71.95
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 66%MOS: $57.56

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

80/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is estimated at $71.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $211.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.25% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is estimated at $71.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $211.50, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.25% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$71.95
-65.98% downside
20% margin of safety: $57.56
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
47.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.1% trailing FCF yield
3
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 47.4% vs WACC 7.0% (6.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
73.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (56th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 235 (199 News · 36 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
182 news sentiment+21.5
9 regulatory scrutiny+2.5
3 earnings beat+0.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
2 layoffs-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.1

Trend Details

80/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.6%
Price vs 50 EMA+11.1%
Price vs 21 EMA+7.0%
Price vs 21 EMA84 · +7.0%
Price vs 50 EMA89 · +11.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA78 · +3.9%
3M RS vs SPY82 · +9.3%
6M RS vs SPY54 · +1.4%
Distance from 52W High99 · -0.6%

Investment Coach

Updated 22h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
NVIDIA Corporation currently trades at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite strong fundamentals, including a high ROIC well above its cost of capital and constructive free cash flow growth. The company's narrative remains stable and supportive, suggesting potential value if the price corrects closer to fair value.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not decline to a reasonable discount to fair value, limiting upside potential and exposing investors to overvaluation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.25%5 Year CAGR: 73.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$108,760$67,325$29,159$7,474$10,084$6,950$5,250$4,343$4,095$1,848$1,261$1,028$1,090$1,007$1,048$774$565$657$1,458$732

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NVIDIA Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NVIDIA CorporationTechnology

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.