Natera, Inc.Opportunity Rank #252(NTRA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$264.69
Last updated: Jul 24, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
-1 vs previous
Trend Score
As of 2026-07-24
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The intrinsic value of Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is estimated at $56.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $264.69, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is estimated at $56.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $264.69, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Trend Details
Investment Coach
- Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
- Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
- Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Natera, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Natera, Inc.Healthcare
Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on developing and commercializing a wide array of molecular testing services globally. Its portfolio includes several key offerings: Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chromosomal abnormalities in a fetus using a blood sample from the mother, and also determines zygosity in twin pregnancies. Vistara, designed to identify single-gene disorders by screening for specific single-gene mutations. Horizon, a comprehensive carrier screening test to determine an individual's carrier status for various genetic diseases. Spectrum, utilized during in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles to detect chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions. Anora, a miscarriage analysis product that examines fetal chromosomes to help understand the cause of pregnancy loss. Non-invasive paternity testing, which establishes paternity during gestation using blood samples from both the pregnant mother and the alleged father. Beyond reproductive health, Natera also provides specialized tests: Signatera, a sophisticated circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) technology capable of screening for a generic set of mutations, independent of the individual's specific tumor characteristics. Prospera, a test used to assess and monitor organ transplant rejection. Additionally, the company offers Constellation, a cloud-based software platform that provides laboratory clients with access to Natera's proprietary algorithms and bioinformatics, enabling them to validate and launch their own tests. Natera distributes its products through a direct sales team and an extensive network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. The company has strategic partnerships, including one with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NGS-based genetic testing assays, and another with Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. Founded in 2003, Natera, Inc. is headquartered in Austin, Texas. It was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. before changing its name in 2012.