Market Pulse50Neutral

Natera, Inc.Opportunity Rank #262(NTRA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$200.09

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$200.09
Price
$55.37
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $44.30

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is estimated at $55.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $200.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is estimated at $55.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $200.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$55.37
-72.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $44.30
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-16.33%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -16.3% vs WACC 8.0% (-2.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
246.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (27th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 47 (42 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
34 news sentiment+0.4
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Natera, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 71% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a low free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 113.19%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 262.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$334$321$202-$208-$384-$294-$163-$58-$67-$87-$51-$30$20-$16-$10

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Natera, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Natera, Inc.Healthcare

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.