Market Pulse44Neutral

Nokia OyjOpportunity Rank #234(NOK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$14.45

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$14.45
Price
$4.50
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 69%MOS: $3.60

Fundamental Score

26/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

85/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Nokia Oyj (NOK) is estimated at $4.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.45, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -9.00% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.03%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nokia Oyj (NOK) is estimated at $4.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.45, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -9.00% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.03%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.50
-68.85% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: -9.00%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.3%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

26/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.7% trailing FCF yield
44
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.3% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (57th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 46m ago
Sources: 81 (79 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
60 news sentiment+1.3
5 upgrade headlines+0.6
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Legal risk+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

85/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+66.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+121.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA53 · +0.6%
Price vs 50 EMA86 · +9.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA94 · +8.7%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +66.1%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +121.1%
Distance from 52W High71 · -14.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Nokia Oyj is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 71% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a net cash position, the company's financial performance and valuation metrics suggest a bearish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Nokia's returns on invested capital fail to improve relative to its weighted average cost of capital, prolonging value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -9.00%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,919$3,058$3,387$2,250$2,371$3,639$2,557$1,234$1,179$2,757-$1,117$938$1,812$547$122$1,981$6,230$4,347$4,829$10,016$6,003

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nokia Oyj's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nokia OyjTechnology

Nokia Oyj stands as a global technology leader, delivering comprehensive network infrastructure and solutions across mobile, fixed, and cloud domains. Its operations are structured into four primary divisions: Mobile Networks, Network Infrastructure, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The Mobile Networks segment furnishes radio access network technologies, spanning from 2G to 5G, alongside crucial microwave radio links for transport. Within Network Infrastructure, Nokia provides fixed access solutions such as fiber and copper, coupled with cloud and virtualization services. This segment also encompasses a robust Wi-Fi portfolio, featuring mesh solutions and cloud-based controllers, as well as sophisticated IP routing solutions for aggregation, edge, and core applications tailored for residential, business, mobile, and industrial sectors. Its extensive optical network offerings include coherent optical transponders, optical transport network switchers, wavelength-division multiplexers, reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexer solutions, and optical line systems designed for metro access, data center interconnect, regional, and long/ultra-long-haul applications. Additionally, Nokia provides capabilities for submarine networks. The Cloud and Network Services division delivers business application software, advanced cloud and cognitive services, core network software, and specialized enterprise solutions. Through Nokia Technologies, the company engages in licensing its valuable intellectual property, encompassing patents, various technologies, and the iconic Nokia brand, in addition to offering hardware, software, and related services. Serving a diverse clientele, Nokia's customers include communications service providers, major internet companies (webscales and hyperscalers), digital industries, and governmental entities. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and maintains its headquarters in Espoo, Finland.