Market Pulse50Neutral

Nokia OyjOpportunity Rank #244(NOK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$8.14

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$8.14
Price
$4.59
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 44%MOS: $3.67

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Nokia Oyj (NOK) is estimated at $4.59 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.14, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -8.69% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nokia Oyj (NOK) is estimated at $4.59 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.14, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -8.69% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.59
▼ -43.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.67
Years: 10Growth Rate: -8.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.85%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
43.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
7.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 77%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 63 (63 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
45 news sentiment+0.8
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
2 macro headwinds+0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Nokia Oyj is currently overvalued by approximately 50% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.4%. The improving narrative score is offset by a deteriorating trend, suggesting caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -8.69%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,252$2,964$3,418$2,270$2,392$3,671$2,580$1,245$1,190$2,782-$1,127$946$1,828$552$123$1,999$6,286$4,386$4,872$10,106$6,057

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nokia Oyj's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nokia OyjTechnology

Nokia Oyj provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Mobile Networks, Network Infrastructure, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. It offers products and services for radio access networks covering technologies from 2G to 5G, and microwave radio links for transport networks. The company provides fixed networking solutions, such as fiber and copper-based access infrastructure, and cloud and virtualization services, as well as wi-fi portfolio, including mesh solutions and cloud-based controllers; IP routing solutions for IP aggregation, and edge and core applications for residential, business, mobile, and industrial services; a portfolio of optical networks comprising portfolio coherent optical transponders, optical transport network switchers, wavelength-division multiplexers, reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexer solutions, and optical line systems for metro access and aggregation, data center interconnect, regional, and long-haul/ultra-long-haul applications; and submarine networks. In addition, it offers business applications software, cloud and cognitive services, core networks software, and enterprise solutions. Further, the company provides hardware, software, and services, as well as licensing of intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. It serves communications service providers, webscales, hyperscalers, digital industries, and government. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.