Market Pulse44Neutral

NIKE, Inc.Opportunity Rank #254(NKE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$43.76

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$43.76
Price
$41.16
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 6%MOS: $32.93

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

39/100
Broken

-6 vs previous

Trend Score

28/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is estimated at $41.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $43.76, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.63% long-term growth rate and an 8.76% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is estimated at $41.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $43.76, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.63% long-term growth rate and an 8.76% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$41.16
-5.94% downside
20% margin of safety: $32.93
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.63%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
5.9% premium to price
40
FCF Yield
5.5% trailing FCF yield
87
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.6x)
29
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-8.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

39/100
Broken
-6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (45th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 97%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 225 (199 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 upgrade headlines-0.6
4 margin pressure-0.4
171 news sentiment+0.1
2 legal risk-0.1
4 analyst downgrades-0.1
4 earnings beat-0.1

Trend Details

28/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-44.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-10.2%
Price vs 21 EMA55 · +0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA44 · -1.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA33 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY15 · -10.2%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -40.9%
Distance from 52W High10 · -44.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
NIKE, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 39% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential. The company's deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score suggest caution for investors.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC and negative free cash flow growth could further depress valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC vs WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.63%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -8.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$3,552$4,128$8,241$6,810$5,946$7,352$3,571$7,022$5,983$4,745$4,239$5,643$3,883$3,663$2,496$2,244$3,499$2,192$2,386$2,192

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NIKE, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NIKE, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers. The company also markets sportswear adorned with licensed logos from college and professional sports teams and leagues. Furthermore, it engages in licensing arrangements, allowing unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell apparel, digital devices, applications, and other sports equipment under NIKE-owned trademarks. Its extensive product catalog reaches consumers globally through diverse channels, including specialized footwear, sporting goods, athletic specialty, department, skate, tennis, and golf stores. Distribution occurs via NIKE's proprietary retail outlets, digital e-commerce platforms, independent distributors, authorized licensees, and sales representatives. Founded in 1964, the company was originally named Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc., before officially becoming NIKE, Inc. in 1971, and maintains its corporate headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon.