Market Pulse50Neutral

NIKE, Inc.Opportunity Rank #230(NKE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$52.71

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$52.71
Price
$38.28
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 27%MOS: $30.62

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

-7 vs previous

The intrinsic value of NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is estimated at $38.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $52.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is estimated at $38.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $52.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$38.28
-27.38% downside
20% margin of safety: $30.62
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.4% premium to price
4
FCF Yield
4.7% trailing FCF yield
67
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
99
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
-7 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (35th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 165 (157 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 upgrade headlines+0.5
100 news sentiment-0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1
40 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
NIKE, Inc. is currently overvalued with its estimated fair value 24.2% below the current price, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company's deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score suggest limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC could further depress valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC vs WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.68%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -7.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,637$4,128$8,241$6,810$5,946$7,352$3,571$7,022$5,983$4,745$4,239$5,643$3,883$3,663$2,496$2,244$3,499$2,192$2,386$2,192$2,002

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NIKE, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NIKE, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells men's, women's, and kids athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories worldwide. The company provides athletic and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories under the Jumpman trademark; and casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories under the Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. In addition, it sells a line of performance equipment and accessories comprising bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities under the NIKE brand; and various plastic products to other manufacturers. The company markets apparel with licensed college and professional team, and league logos, as well as sells sports apparel. Additionally, it licenses unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell apparel, digital devices, and applications and other equipment for sports activities under NIKE-owned trademarks. The company sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other retail accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, digital platforms, independent distributors, licensees, and sales representatives. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.