Market Pulse44Neutral

New Gold Inc.Opportunity Rank #34(NGD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$9.08

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.08
Price
$23.39
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 158%MOS: $18.71

Fundamental Score

90/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. (NGD) is estimated at $23.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.90% long-term growth rate and an 11.53% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. (NGD) is estimated at $23.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.90% long-term growth rate and an 11.53% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$23.39
▲ 157.60% upside
20% margin of safety: $18.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.90%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

90/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
157.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
20.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.2% vs WACC 9.0% (1.4x)
68
Net Debt / FCF
0.0x net debt to FCF
99
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Based on limited recent narrative data
Trend: StableConfidence: 25%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 0
Drivers(last 30 days)
No narrative drivers available yet.

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22246 daily bars used
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
New Gold Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 155% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital and a healthy free cash flow yield. The company demonstrates robust financial health with low net debt relative to FCF and ongoing buybacks, indicating shareholder value creation.
Key Risk
A key risk is the potential decline in ROIC below the cost of capital, which could undermine the company's profitability and valuation premium.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.90%5 Year CAGR: 21.01%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,482$1,491$664$554$484$571$579$517$459$909$849$652$548$461$758$643$330$196$159$60$16

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates New Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

New Gold Inc.Basic Materials

New Gold Inc. is an intermediate-tier gold mining firm involved in discovering, developing, and running various mineral assets. Its core focus is on unearthing deposits of gold, silver, and copper. The company wholly owns and operates its main properties, which include the Rainy River mine in Ontario, Canada, and the New Afton mine in British Columbia, Canada. Additionally, it manages the Cerro San Pedro mine located in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Established in 1980, New Gold Inc. has its main office in Toronto, Canada.