Market Pulse50Neutral

New Gold Inc.Opportunity Rank #46(NGD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$9.08

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.08
Price
$19.22
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 112%MOS: $15.38

Fundamental Score

74/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. (NGD) is estimated at $19.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.63% long-term growth rate and an 11.56% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. (NGD) is estimated at $19.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.63% long-term growth rate and an 11.56% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$19.22
▲ 111.67% upside
20% margin of safety: $15.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.63%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

74/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
111.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 89%Updated: 52m ago
Sources: 44 (43 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
37 news sentiment+0.8
5 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
New Gold Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 118.8% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 74 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 17.6%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's improving narrative and robust free cash flow growth suggest potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the company's cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.63%5 Year CAGR: 16.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
$1,267$664$554$484$571$579$517$459$909$849$652$548$461$758$643$330$196$159$60$16$14

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates New Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

New Gold Inc.Basic Materials

New Gold Inc., an intermediate gold mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. The company's principal operating properties include 100% interests in the Rainy River mine located in Ontario, Canada; and New Afton mine situated in British Columbia, Canada. It also operates the Cerro San Pedro mine in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.