Market Pulse44Neutral

Netflix, Inc.Opportunity Rank #289(NFLX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$72.88

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$72.88
Price
$55.75
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 24%MOS: $44.60

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

36/100
Broken

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

6/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is estimated at $55.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $72.88, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.14% long-term growth rate and a 10.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is estimated at $55.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $72.88, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.14% long-term growth rate and a 10.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$55.75
▼ -23.50% downside
20% margin of safety: $44.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.5% premium to price
11
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
59
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.9% vs WACC 9.0% (1.2x)
61
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
35.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

36/100
Broken
-3 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (1st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
180 news sentiment-1.8
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
3 upgrade headlines+0.2
2 legal risk-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

6/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-34.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-15.4%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -10.9%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -15.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA15 · -5.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -35.4%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -34.0%
Distance from 52W High9 · -45.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Netflix, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 33% relative to its estimated fair value of $55.04, despite having constructive fundamentals with a neutral score of 60 and positive free cash flow growth. The company's return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital, supported by strong buybacks and a solid free cash flow CAGR.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the deteriorating narrative trend which may signal worsening business conditions or market sentiment that could further depress the stock price.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over the coming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.83%5 Year CAGR: 70.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,406$10,837$7,801$7,623$2,434$917$2,925-$2,634-$2,468-$1,559-$1,289-$580$161$218$112$453$311$564$492$337$445

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Netflix, Inc.Communication Services

Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.