Market Pulse59Neutral

Netflix, Inc.Opportunity Rank #252(NFLX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$88.25

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$88.25
Price
$54.08
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 39%MOS: $43.26

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

29/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is estimated at $54.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.13% long-term growth rate and a 10.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is estimated at $54.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.13% long-term growth rate and a 10.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$54.08
▼ -38.72% downside
20% margin of safety: $43.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.13%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
38.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.6% trailing FCF yield
40
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.9% vs WACC 9.0% (1.2x)
61
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
35.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 99%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 220 (200 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
37 regulatory scrutiny+3.1
151 news sentiment-0.4
4 earnings beat-0.2
4 downgrade headlines-0.1
Earnings miss-0.1
Macro headwinds+0.1

Trend Details

29/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.2%
Price vs 21 EMA-5.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA19 · -5.6%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA43 · -0.9%
3M RS vs SPY48 · -0.4%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -29.2%
Distance from 52W High31 · -34.7%

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Netflix, Inc. is currently trading at a significant premium with its price about 39% above the estimated fair value of $53.64, despite constructive fundamentals and a supportive narrative. The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds its cost of capital, and it shows strong free cash flow growth and buyback activity, indicating underlying operational strength.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may correct downward to align with fair value, especially if ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the narrative deteriorates.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over the coming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.83%5 Year CAGR: 70.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,406$10,837$7,801$7,623$2,434$917$2,925-$2,634-$2,468-$1,559-$1,289-$580$161$218$112$453$311$564$492$337$445

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Netflix, Inc.Communication Services

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.