Market Pulse50Neutral

Netflix, Inc.Opportunity Rank #214(NFLX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$93.38

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$93.38
Price
$39.02
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 58%MOS: $31.22

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is estimated at $39.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.79% long-term growth rate and an 11.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is estimated at $39.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $93.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.79% long-term growth rate and an 11.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$39.02
▼ -58.21% downside
20% margin of safety: $31.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.35%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
58.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
18
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.4% vs WACC 9.0% (1.0x)
52
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
90
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
29.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (75th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 228 (200 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
29 regulatory scrutiny+6.9
164 news sentiment+3.2
4 upgrade headlines+0.2
Downgrade headlines-0.1
Restructuring-0.1
3 analyst upgrades+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Netflix is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 57.6% above the estimated fair value of $39.57, despite a supportive and improving narrative score of 81. The company's fundamentals show neutral strength with positive free cash flow growth and a slight ROIC advantage over WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct downward to reflect its fair value, leading to potential losses for investors buying at current levels.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens percentage discount to fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for sustained improvement indicating better capital efficiency.
  • Follow changes in the narrative score for any meaningful shifts that could impact valuation.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.78%5 Year CAGR: 63.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,837$10,837$7,801$7,623$2,434$917$2,925-$2,634-$2,468-$1,559-$1,289-$580$161$218$112$453$311$564$492$337$445

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Netflix, Inc.Communication Services

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.