Market Pulse50Neutral

Cloudflare, Inc.Opportunity Rank #258(NET) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$220.65

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$220.65
Price
$48.80
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 78%MOS: $39.04

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is estimated at $48.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $220.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and an 11.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is estimated at $48.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $220.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and an 11.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$48.80
▼ -77.88% downside
20% margin of safety: $39.04
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.88%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
77.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
77.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (77th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 97%Updated: 45m ago
Sources: 168 (152 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
113 news sentiment+1.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
5 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Cloudflare, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 77% above its estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative score but weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite improving narrative trends, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions and a significant ROIC deficit compared to WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.66%5 Year CAGR: 42.40%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$1,009$1,009$565$389$287$172$58$18-$8$26$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Cloudflare, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Cloudflare, Inc.Technology

CloudFlare, Inc. operates as a cloud services provider that delivers a range of services to businesses worldwide. The company offers an integrated cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public cloud, private cloud, on-premise, software-as-a-service applications, and IoT devices. Its security products comprise cloud firewall, bot management, distributed denial of service, IoT, SSL/TLS, secure origin connection, and rate limiting products. The company also offers performance solutions, which include content delivery and intelligent routing, as well as content, mobile, and image optimization solutions. In addition, it provides reliability solutions comprising load balancing, anycast network, virtual backbone, DNS, DNS resolver, online, and virtual waiting room solutions. Further, the company offers Cloudflare internal infrastructure solutions, including on-ramps, which connect users, devices, or locations to its network; and filters, which are the products that protect, inspect, and privilege data. Additionally, it provides developer-based solutions, such as serverless computing/programmable network, website development, domain registration, Cloudflare apps, analytics, and data localization management; Consumer DNS Resolver, a consumer app to browse the Internet; and Consumer VPN for consumers to secure and accelerate traffic on mobile devices. The company serves customers in the technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer and retail, and non-profit industries, as well as government. CloudFlare, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.