Market Pulse44Neutral

Cloudflare, Inc.Opportunity Rank #263(NET) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$218.56

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$218.56
Price
$54.75
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 75%MOS: $43.80

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

76/100
Strong

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

43/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is estimated at $54.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $218.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is estimated at $54.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $218.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$54.75
-74.95% downside
20% margin of safety: $43.80
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.54%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
74.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.5% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
77.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

76/100
Strong
+5 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 99%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 112 (98 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
15 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
69 news sentiment+1.3
3 restructuring-0.0
4 layoffs+0.0
4 earnings beat-0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

43/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-5.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA21 · -5.1%
Price vs 50 EMA42 · -1.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA76 · +3.6%
3M RS vs SPY10 · -13.4%
6M RS vs SPY59 · +3.2%
Distance from 52W High60 · -19.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Cloudflare, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 74% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a low free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and a bearish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Cloudflare's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, continuing to erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.64%5 Year CAGR: 42.23%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$1,003$1,009$565$389$287$172$58$18-$8$26$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Cloudflare, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Cloudflare, Inc.Technology

Cloudflare, Inc. functions as a global provider of cloud-based services. The company delivers a comprehensive, integrated cloud security platform designed to safeguard a diverse array of digital environments, encompassing public and private clouds, on-premises infrastructure, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) applications, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. Its security portfolio features tools such as cloud firewalls, bot mitigation, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) protection, IoT security, SSL/TLS encryption, secure origin connections, and rate limiting capabilities. Beyond security, Cloudflare also boosts online performance through services like content delivery networks (CDNs), intelligent routing, and various content, mobile, and image optimization tools. For enhanced reliability and availability, it provides solutions such as load balancing, its proprietary Anycast network, a virtual backbone, DNS services, DNS resolvers, and virtual waiting rooms. Furthermore, the company offers internal infrastructure tools, including "on-ramps" that facilitate seamless connections for users, devices, or locations to its expansive network, alongside "filters" engineered for data protection, inspection, and access management. Developer-centric solutions encompass serverless computing, programmable networks, website creation, domain registration, a suite of Cloudflare applications, advanced analytics, and data localization management. For individual consumers, Cloudflare provides a DNS Resolver application to improve internet browsing and a Consumer VPN to secure and speed up mobile device traffic. Its clientele spans a broad spectrum of industries, including technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer and retail, non-profit organizations, and government agencies. Established in 2009, Cloudflare, Inc. is headquartered in San Francisco, California.