Market Pulse50Neutral

Nebius Group N.V.Opportunity Rank #73(NBIS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$114.15

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$114.15
Price
$326.35
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 186%MOS: $261.08

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is estimated at $326.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $114.15, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is estimated at $326.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $114.15, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.09% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$326.35
▲ 185.90% upside
20% margin of safety: $261.08
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-3.88%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
185.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -3.9% vs WACC 9.0% (-0.4x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
98
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
37.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (63rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 203 (200 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
170 news sentiment+6.6
26 regulatory scrutiny+2.5
3 upgrade headlines+0.2
Earnings miss-0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Nebius Group N.V. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 180% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. The company shows robust free cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.09%5 Year CAGR: 39.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$3,765$4,451$1,053$913$712$723$768$1,047$814$627$570$441$454$597$511$408$256$139

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nebius Group N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nebius Group N.V.Communication Services

Nebius Group N.V., operates as a technology company that engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry. Its businesses include Nebius, an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads. Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company's businesses also comprise Toloka AI, a data partner for various stages of generative AI development; TripleTen, an edtech player re-skilling people for careers in tech; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands with R&D hubs across Europe, North America and Israel.