Market Pulse46Neutral

Nebius Group N.V.Opportunity Rank #10(NBIS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$219.65

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$219.65
Price
$648.48
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 195%MOS: $518.78

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

71/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is estimated at $648.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $219.65, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.13% long-term growth rate and a 9.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is estimated at $648.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $219.65, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.13% long-term growth rate and a 9.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$648.48
▲ 195.23% upside
20% margin of safety: $518.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.13%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.41%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
195.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
16.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.4% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
30
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
61.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (11th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 202 (195 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
173 news sentiment+2.6
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
3 downgrade headlines+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
Restructuring+0.0

Trend Details

71/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+118.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+50.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+7.3%
Price vs 21 EMA19 · -5.7%
Price vs 50 EMA56 · +1.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA91 · +7.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +50.1%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +118.8%
Distance from 52W High53 · -23.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
BUYConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Nebius Group N.V. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 213% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a constructive narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and growth metrics indicate potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which may hinder value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.13%5 Year CAGR: 63.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$8,496$4,451$1,053$913$712$723$768$1,047$814$627$570$441$454$597$511$408$256$139

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nebius Group N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nebius Group N.V.Communication Services

Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company dedicated to developing comprehensive infrastructure to serve the global artificial intelligence industry. Its operations encompass several key areas. Central to its mission is Nebius, an AI-focused cloud platform engineered to handle demanding AI workloads. This division constructs end-to-end AI infrastructure, featuring extensive GPU computing clusters, robust cloud platforms, and essential tools and services for developers. The group also includes Toloka AI, which functions as a data solutions provider, assisting with various phases of generative AI development. TripleTen operates as an educational technology venture, focused on equipping individuals with new skills for careers in the tech sector. Furthermore, Avride specializes in pioneering autonomous driving technologies for self-driving vehicles and delivery robots. Founded in 1989, the company was previously known as Yandex N.V. until its rebranding to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Its headquarters are located in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, with additional research and development facilities spread across Europe, North America, and Israel.