Market Pulse50Neutral

The Marzetti CompanyOpportunity Rank #121(MZTI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$143.00

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$143.00
Price
$165.76
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 16%MOS: $132.61

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) is estimated at $165.76 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $143.00, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) is estimated at $165.76 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $143.00, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$165.76
▲ 15.92% upside
20% margin of safety: $132.61
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
15.9% discount to price
77
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.3% vs WACC 7.0% (0.8x)
38
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (7th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 62%Updated: 53m ago
Sources: 17 (13 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 news sentiment+0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
BUYConfidence: 50%
Thesis
The Marzetti Company presents a compelling buy opportunity with a valuation implying a 17% upside and healthy free cash flow yield of 7.9%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company's fundamentals remain constructive with strong buybacks and positive free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.70%5 Year CAGR: 3.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$311$319$319$316$234$262$253$268$192$171$159$151$145$156$139$183$121$145$110$150$159

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Marzetti Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Marzetti CompanyConsumer Defensive

Manufactures and markets specialty food products (garlic breads, rolls, dressings, dips, pasta, croutons), serving retail and foodservice channels in the U.S.