Market Pulse53Neutral

The Marzetti CompanyOpportunity Rank #96(MZTI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$106.55

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$106.55
Price
$209.22
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 96%MOS: $167.38

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

17/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) is estimated at $209.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.55, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.91% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) is estimated at $209.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.55, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.91% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$209.22
▲ 96.36% upside
20% margin of safety: $167.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.91%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.31%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
96.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.3% vs WACC 7.0% (0.8x)
38
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
69
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (36th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 57%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 12 (10 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
7 news sentiment-0.0
2 legal risk-0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

17/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-43.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-43.3%
Price vs 21 EMA35 · -2.5%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA23 · -3.5%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -18.8%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -43.8%
Distance from 52W High13 · -43.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
The Marzetti Company is undervalued with an estimated fair value 92.4% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 12.8%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company demonstrates solid financial metrics and buyback activity.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.91%5 Year CAGR: 8.04%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$386$319$319$316$234$262$253$268$192$171$159$151$145$156$139$183$121$145$110$150$159

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Marzetti Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Marzetti CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Marzetti Company is a producer and distributor of various specialized food items. Their extensive product line includes garlic breads, dinner rolls, salad dressings, dips, pasta, and croutons. These offerings are supplied to both retail outlets for consumers and the commercial foodservice industry across the United States.