Market Pulse50Neutral

Microsoft CorporationOpportunity Rank #17(MSFT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$383.00

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$383.00
Price
$626.67
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 64%MOS: $501.34

Fundamental Score

88/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is estimated at $626.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $383.00, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.62% long-term growth rate and a 9.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is estimated at $626.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $383.00, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.62% long-term growth rate and a 9.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$626.67
63.62% upside
20% margin of safety: $501.34
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.62%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.86%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

88/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
63.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.9% vs WACC 8.0% (1.2x)
62
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (73rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 221 (200 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
59 regulatory scrutiny+4.4
138 news sentiment+2.9
2 legal risk+0.5
Layoffs-0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Microsoft Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 67.7% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 88 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.6%. The company's improving narrative score and positive ROIC versus WACC further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the valuation discount narrows below 10% or if ROIC falls below the cost of capital, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.62%5 Year CAGR: 20.13%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$243,600$200,713$163,025$115,689$112,921$97,362$76,116$66,110$55,516$47,636$41,668$35,612$37,987$33,090$33,931$29,349$26,050$22,156$24,794$20,060$15,982

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Microsoft Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Microsoft CorporationTechnology

Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business; Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn; and Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based and on-premises business solutions for organizations and enterprise divisions. The Intelligent Cloud segment licenses SQL, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and related Client Access Licenses; GitHub that provides a collaboration platform and code hosting service for developers; Nuance provides healthcare and enterprise AI solutions; and Azure, a cloud platform. It also offers enterprise support, Microsoft consulting, and nuance professional services to assist customers in developing, deploying, and managing Microsoft server and desktop solutions; and training and certification on Microsoft products. The More Personal Computing segment provides Windows original equipment manufacturer (OEM) licensing and other non-volume licensing of the Windows operating system; Windows Commercial, such as volume licensing of the Windows operating system, Windows cloud services, and other Windows commercial offerings; patent licensing; and Windows Internet of Things. It also offers Surface, PC accessories, PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, and other devices; Gaming, including Xbox hardware, and Xbox content and services; video games and third-party video game royalties; and Search, including Bing and Microsoft advertising. The company sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and directly through digital marketplaces, online stores, and retail stores. Microsoft Corporation was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.