Market Pulse44Neutral

Microsoft CorporationOpportunity Rank #44(MSFT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$367.34

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$367.34
Price
$691.44
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 88%MOS: $553.15

Fundamental Score

88/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

16/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is estimated at $691.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $367.34, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.69% long-term growth rate and a 9.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is estimated at $691.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $367.34, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.69% long-term growth rate and a 9.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$691.44
88.23% upside
20% margin of safety: $553.15
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.69%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.71%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

88/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
88.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.7% vs WACC 8.0% (1.2x)
61
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
28.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (61st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 227 (198 News · 29 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
133 news sentiment+6.2
46 legal risk+0.4
15 regulatory scrutiny-0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
Layoffs-0.1
Restructuring+0.0

Trend Details

16/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-8.6%
Price vs 21 EMA9 · -8.6%
Price vs 50 EMA11 · -10.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA38 · -1.5%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -18.6%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -33.7%
Distance from 52W High36 · -32.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Microsoft Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 79.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 88 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 9.1%. The company's improving narrative and positive ROIC spread over WACC further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if Microsoft's return on invested capital (ROIC) falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.69%5 Year CAGR: 22.39%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$267,366$200,713$163,025$115,689$112,921$97,362$76,116$66,110$55,516$47,636$41,668$35,612$37,987$33,090$33,931$29,349$26,050$22,156$24,794$20,060$15,982

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Microsoft Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Microsoft CorporationTechnology

Microsoft Corporation is a prominent global technology firm that invents, markets, and provides ongoing assistance for a diverse range of software, digital services, computing devices, and comprehensive solutions. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment delivers crucial tools for both enterprises and individual users. This includes the extensive Office suite (comprising Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business), along with popular consumer offerings like Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn. It also features Dynamics 365, a suite of integrated cloud and on-premises business applications tailored for organizations. The Intelligent Cloud division focuses on sophisticated infrastructure and platform services. Here, Microsoft licenses key products such as SQL Server, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and associated Client Access Licenses. It also includes GitHub, a leading platform for developer collaboration and code hosting; Nuance, offering advanced AI solutions for healthcare and businesses; and Azure, its expansive cloud computing platform. This segment further encompasses enterprise support, Microsoft consulting services, and Nuance professional services, assisting clients with the development, deployment, and management of Microsoft's server and desktop technologies, alongside offering product training and certification. Finally, the More Personal Computing segment covers a broad spectrum of consumer and commercial computing experiences. It generates revenue through Windows operating system licensing, including agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), non-volume licensing, and various Windows Commercial offerings (such as volume licensing and cloud services), as well as patent licensing and Windows Internet of Things (IoT). This division also supplies its own hardware, including Surface devices, PC accessories, and gaming/entertainment consoles. Its Gaming portfolio features Xbox hardware, content, and subscription services, in addition to video games and royalties from third-party titles. Furthermore, it manages search services like Bing and Microsoft's advertising platforms. Microsoft distributes its extensive product line via numerous channels, including original equipment manufacturers, wholesale distributors, and various resellers, complementing direct sales through digital marketplaces, its own online storefronts, and physical retail outlets. The company, established in 1975, maintains its headquarters in Redmond, Washington.