Market Pulse59Neutral

Morgan StanleyOpportunity Rank #10(MS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$190.17

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$190.17
Price
$158.77
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 17%MOS: $127.02

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

72/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Morgan Stanley (MS) is estimated at $158.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $190.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.15% long-term growth rate and an 11.40% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Morgan Stanley (MS) is estimated at $158.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $190.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.15% long-term growth rate and an 11.40% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$158.77
-16.51% downside
20% margin of safety: $127.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.15%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
16.5% premium to price
22
FCF Yield
-0.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
273.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
644.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (63rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 192 (182 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
129 news sentiment+1.8
41 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
7 upgrade headlines+0.3
5 earnings beat+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

72/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA70 · +3.5%
Price vs 50 EMA80 · +7.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA77 · +3.6%
3M RS vs SPY52 · +0.5%
6M RS vs SPY71 · +8.0%
Distance from 52W High100 · -0.1%

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Morgan Stanley's fundamentals are weak with returns trailing its cost of capital, and its shares appear fully priced with a negative upside to fair value. Despite a supportive and stable narrative score, the valuation and fundamental metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.15%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -87.82%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$970$51,896$4,824-$30,124-$3,319$36,279-$23,787$42,599$9,170-$2,876$3,723$5,047$2,123$36,869$25,860$7,988$41,508-$43,074$74,817-$20,624-$60,803

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Morgan Stanley's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Morgan StanleyFinancial Services

Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The Institutional Securities segment offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity, and other securities, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, real estate, and project finance. This segment also provides sales and trading services, such as sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services in equity and fixed income products consisting of foreign exchange and commodities; corporate and commercial real estate loans, which provides secured lending facilities and financing for sales and trading customers, and asset-backed and mortgage lending; and wealth management services, investment, and research services. The Wealth Management segment offers financial advisor-led brokerage and investment advisory services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; workplace services, including stock plan administration; annuity and insurance products; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses and institutions. The Investment Management segment provides equity, fixed income, liquidity, and alternative/other products to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and third-party fund sponsors and corporations through institutional and intermediary channels. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.