Market Pulse63Bullish

Marvell Technology, Inc.Opportunity Rank #211(MRVL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$235.81

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$235.81
Price
$31.11
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 87%MOS: $24.89

Fundamental Score

39/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

70/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is estimated at $31.11 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $235.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.69% long-term growth rate and an 11.97% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is estimated at $31.11 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $235.81, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.69% long-term growth rate and an 11.97% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$31.11
-86.81% downside
20% margin of safety: $24.89
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.33%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

39/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
86.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
91
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 241 (200 News · 41 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
179 news sentiment+4.5
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
Restructuring-0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.2
Margin pressure+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

70/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+85.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+169.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+10.9%
Price vs 21 EMA11 · -8.1%
Price vs 50 EMA59 · +1.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA97 · +10.9%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +85.6%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +169.1%
Distance from 52W High49 · -25.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Marvell Technology, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 87.7% above estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a stable but weak narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.69%5 Year CAGR: 21.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,449$1,973$1,721$1,506$1,006$937$447$684$616-$304$261$808$532$832$874$1,307$867$759$314$526

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Marvell Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Marvell Technology, Inc.Technology

Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions and spanning the data center core to network edge in the United States, Argentina, China, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and internationally. The company develops and scales system-on-a-chip architectures, integrating analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing functionality. It offers a portfolio of ethernet solutions, including spanning controllers, network adapters, physical transceivers, and switches; single or multiple core processors; and custom application specific integrated circuits, interconnects, fibre channel adapters, and processors. The company also provides interconnect products, including pulse amplitude modulation, coherent and coherent-lite digital signal processors (DSPs), laser drivers, trans-impedance amplifiers, silicon photonics, co-packaged optics, linear pluggable optics chipsets, data center interconnect, active electrical cable DSPs and peripheral component interconnect express retimer solutions; fibre channel products comprising host bus adapters and controllers for server and storage system connectivity; storage controllers for hard disk drives and solid-state-drives; host system interfaces, including serial advanced technology attachment and serial attached SCSI, peripheral component interconnect express, compute express link switches, non-volatile memory express (NVMe), and NVMe over fabrics; and develops ultra accelerator linkTM switches and ethernet for scale-up networking switches. The company serves data centers, communications, and other markets. It offers its products through direct customers and distributors. Marvell Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq