Market Pulse44Neutral

Marvell Technology, Inc.Opportunity Rank #173(MRVL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$307.86

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$307.86
Price
$31.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 90%MOS: $24.80

Fundamental Score

39/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

99/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is estimated at $31.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $307.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.69% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.01%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is estimated at $31.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $307.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.69% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.01%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$31.00
-89.93% downside
20% margin of safety: $24.80
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.33%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

39/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
89.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
91
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 239 (200 News · 39 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
181 news sentiment+6.9
6 upgrade headlines+1.2
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
37 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

99/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+235.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+265.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+44.2%
Price vs 21 EMA98 · +17.4%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +44.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +22.9%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +235.4%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +265.9%
Distance from 52W High95 · -2.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Marvell Technology, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 87.7% above estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a stable but weak narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.69%5 Year CAGR: 21.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,449$1,973$1,721$1,506$1,006$937$447$684$616-$304$261$808$532$832$874$1,307$867$759$314$526

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Marvell Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Marvell Technology, Inc.Technology

Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its affiliated companies, specializes in the development, engineering, and commercialization of a broad range of integrated circuits. These offerings encompass analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, embedded, and standalone chip solutions. The company's product portfolio includes a variety of Ethernet solutions, such as controllers, network adapters, physical layer transceivers, and switches. They also provide single and multi-core processors, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and System-on-a-Chip products for printers, along with application processors. Furthermore, Marvell delivers extensive storage solutions. These consist of controllers for both hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid-state drives (SSDs), designed to support diverse host system interfaces including serial attached SCSI (SAS), serial advanced technology attachment (SATA), peripheral component interconnect express (PCIe), non-volatile memory express (NVMe), and NVMe over fabrics. Their fiber channel product line features host bus adapters and controllers essential for server and storage system connectivity. Marvell maintains operations across numerous international locations, including the United States, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, India, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.