Market Pulse50Neutral

Marvell Technology, Inc.Opportunity Rank #239(MRVL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$90.16

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$90.16
Price
$27.32
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 70%MOS: $21.86

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is estimated at $27.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $90.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.48% long-term growth rate and an 11.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is estimated at $27.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $90.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.48% long-term growth rate and an 11.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$27.32
▼ -69.70% downside
20% margin of safety: $21.86
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.38%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
69.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
17
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.4% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
83
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (72nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 188 (165 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
127 news sentiment+4.3
26 regulatory scrutiny+1.5
7 earnings beat+0.6
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
4 analyst upgrades+0.2
Margin pressure+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Marvell Technology, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price significantly above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the cost of capital despite a supportive and improving narrative. The company's fundamentals show bearish signals with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify the current high valuation, leading to potential further downside.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.48%5 Year CAGR: 17.60%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,107$1,973$1,721$1,506$1,006$937$447$684$616-$304$261$808$532$832$874$1,307$867$759$314$526

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Marvell Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Marvell Technology, Inc.Technology

Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, and embedded and standalone integrated circuits. It offers a portfolio of Ethernet solutions, including controllers, network adapters, physical transceivers, and switches; single or multiple core processors; ASIC; and printer System-on-a-Chip products and application processors. The company also provides a range of storage products comprising storage controllers for hard disk drives (HDD) and solid-state drives that support various host system interfaces consisting of serial attached SCSI (SAS), serial advanced technology attachment (SATA), peripheral component interconnect express, non-volatile memory express (NVMe), and NVMe over fabrics; and fiber channel products, including host bus adapters, and controllers for server and storage system connectivity. It has operations in the United States, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, India, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Marvell Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.