Moderna, Inc.Opportunity Rank #321(MRNA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$51.28
Last updated: Mar 24, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
The intrinsic value of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is estimated at $3.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $51.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -31.76% long-term growth rate and a 9.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is estimated at $3.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $51.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -31.76% long-term growth rate and a 9.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Investment Coach
- Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
- Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
- Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Moderna, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Moderna, Inc.Healthcare
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.