Moderna, Inc.Opportunity Rank #277(MRNA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$61.82
Last updated: Jul 20, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
+3 vs previous
Trend Score
As of 2026-07-17
The intrinsic value of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is estimated at $2.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $61.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -24.19% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.70%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is estimated at $2.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $61.82, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -24.19% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.70%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Trend Details
Investment Coach
- Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
- Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
- Meaningful positive shifts in narrative score and trend
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Moderna, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Moderna, Inc.Healthcare
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah. Additionally, Moderna is advancing systemic secreted and cell surface-targeted therapeutics, an array of cancer vaccines (including personalized, KRAS, and checkpoint varieties), intratumoral immuno-oncology products, localized regenerative treatments, systemic intracellular medicines, and inhaled pulmonary solutions. Moderna maintains strategic alliances with several prominent entities, including AstraZeneca PLC, Merck & Co., Inc., Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited, Carisma Therapeutics, Inc., Metagenomi, Inc., the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), the Institute for Life Changing Medicines, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It also holds a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. Founded in 2010 as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc., the company officially became Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Its corporate headquarters are located in Cambridge, Massachusetts.